The Motorola Droid is here.  And though I’m a little disappointed it didn’t actually arrive via Stealth Bomber, it did come in with a bang.  From all of the buzz online and an aggressive advertising campaign, Verizon Wireless has declared the Droid as the poster child of its new line of phones running Google’s Android OS.

Speaking of Android, remember the T-Mobile G1 from last fall?  There was a ton of anticipation around the release of the G1, which was essentially the poster child of the first generation of Android phones.  How does interest in the Droid compare to interest in the G1 around launch?

Continue reading “Droid Really Does” »

T-Mobile’s MyTouch 3G commercials may be all over the TV and internet these days, but most consumers viewing these commercials are probably not aware that HTC is actually the device’s manufacturer.  HTC has long been making innovative handsets that, more often than not in the US, are branded by the wireless carrier at which they are available.  In fact, HTC provided the hardware behind the first two Android-capable phones in the US: the T-Mobile G1 and the aforementioned MyTouch 3G.

However throughout 2009, HTC has not only offered more phones at the major carriers under its own brand but has also refocused its website to position HTC as a leading brand offering user-friendly smartphones that focus on the individual’s needs, both business and personal.

Continue reading “HTC Poised to Grow as Smartphone Market Expands” »

Throughout 2009, Boost Mobile has been at the forefront of a prepaid resurgence in the wireless industry.  Boost’s distinctive “Unwrong’d” campaigns have been all over the media for much of the year, but have they helped Boost gain any traction in the wireless world?

As it turns out, Boost had the right idea.  Not only has its traffic increased significantly over the last year, but the prepaid market as a whole is experiencing a boom.  Based on Compete’s clickstream data, overall Prepaid Prospect Traffic (non-Customer traffic to Boost, GoPhone, VZW Prepaid, ToGo, Tracfone, Virgin Mobile USA) has increased 12% Y-o-Y.

Continue reading “The Economy Helps Boost the Prepaid Market” »

Those of us that follow the consumer electronics industry have been hearing about the promise of netbooks for quite some time now.  The Consumer Electronics Association predicts the netbook category will generate $3.4 billion in 2009.  It seems like every major OEM, retailer and wireless carrier has plans to enter the game in some form or another. But until recently, consumers didn’t seem to be getting the message.  Based on Compete’s panel of users, we have seen consumer interest in netbooks grow to almost 1 million people monthly (26% growth) between January 2009 and June 2009 at retail websites alone.  Online interest at wireless carrier websites, which was non-existent in January, is now reaching over 300,000 people a month.

There are three main factors driving online netbook interest in recent months:

• Economy in recession.  Consumers’ wallets have been hit hard and they are more reluctant to shell out a thousand dollars or more on what may be seen as a luxury purchase, such as a notebook computer.  Even shoppers who don’t really understand what a netbook is best used for may consider one over a notebook simply because of its price.
• Back-to-school seasonality.  You’re heading off to high school or college and let’s be honest – you’ll probably use your computer more for storing music and surfing the web than for typing term papers.  The portability and other promoted features of netbooks are appealing to students, and parents like the less expensive price tag.
• Advertising.  Over the last year, there have been a myriad of product and strategic announcements surrounding netbooks, and consumer-focused advertising is finally starting to catch up.  Online, websites are starting to dedicate prime space to netbooks, which increases awareness and ease of browsing for researchers and shoppers.  The wireless carriers are beginning their advertising blitzes as well.

To date, online interest in netbooks has been concentrated at OEM and retail websites rather than wireless carrier websites.  This is a role reversal as compared to the mobile phone industry. (The carriers hold an order of magnitude advantage in mobile phone online traffic as compared to manufacturers and other retailers.)  There are encouraging signs though for the carriers.  Over 84,000 people viewed the HP Mini 1151NR netbook at VerizonWireless.com last month (about the same as the HTC Touch Pro).  These shoppers were actively in-market, as three of the top five devices these HP Mini shoppers also looked at were two netbooks at AT&T and a Verizon Wireless mobile broadband card.

A recent Compete survey showed that only 26% of all wireless prospects (prospects = visited a carrier website for a non-customer-related reason) were interested in purchasing a netbook from a wireless carrier.  The goal for carriers is obviously not just to sell the netbook itself but to lock consumers into service contracts, no matter the channel through which that happens.  Heavy subsidies in exchange for data service contracts not only generate additional data service revenue, but the exclusive lineup of products in some cases (read: iPhone) becomes a point of differentiation for the carrier as well.

Historically, consumers have been well-trained to expect discounted or free merchandise in exchange for their willingness to sign a service contract with the carrier, and this trend appears to be spilling over into netbooks as well.  More than three-quarters of consumers aren’t willing to pay more than $200 for a netbook.  A full quarter expects to pay less than $50 for this device.  If netbook pricing trends follow those of mobile phones, we could soon see most netbooks available for free with a data service contract.  Sprint and Best Buy are already subsidizing the Compaq Mini 110c for $0.99 with a service contract.  This may be a business model that works for the carriers, but I can’t imagine that all of these OEMs developing netbooks will be thrilled with the idea of commoditization of their products.

The good news is that consumers are starting to take notice of netbooks, much in the same way that mobile phone interest took off earlier this decade.  The bad news is that consumers are thinking about netbook pricing in the same way they think about mobile phone pricing.  The all-important holiday season is just around the corner, and you can be sure shoppers will be looking for subsidies in order to perceive their netbook purchase as more cost-effective.  If the subsidies are not there, perhaps shoppers will decide that heavily-subsidized smartphones have enough media and web browsing capabilities to meet their needs.  But that’s a topic for another blog…

Actress Whoopi Goldberg, LA Lakers coach Phil Jackson, and motorcycle guru/TV personality Jesse James: who would have thought anything could bring such different and bold personalities together in one TV commercial. T-Mobile did just that with the launch of its T-Mobile MyTouch campaign, focusing on how the MyTouch can be customized for any individual or personality. The T-Mobile My Touch is the second Google Android phone T-Mobile has launched; this device is the sequel to its original Android release, the T-Mobile G1.

Like the G1 launch, T-Mobile gave favor to existing Customers with its MyTouch launch. On July 8th T-Mobile released the MyTouch to existing Customers, but it wasn’t until August 5th that the MyTouch was released to everyone. This differed from the G1 launch in that Customers were not simply pre- registering (paying for the phone, but receiving it on the day it was made available to everyone), but truly ordering the phone (paying for it and receiving it immediately). So how did interest in the MyTouch launch fare compared to interest in the G1 around its launch?

• T-Mobile drove nearly all traffic from on site ads and banner ads to the microsites around the time of launch. T-MobileG1.com saw 1.15M visitors in October 2008 (launch month). T-MobileMyTouch.com saw 531K visitors in July (Customer launch month) and 544K visitors in August 2009 (general population launch month). Though the spike seen the week of the G1 launch was certainly influenced by a G1 link being displayed on the Google.com homepage, it’s clear overall interest in the MyTouch around launch generally paled in comparison to interest in the G1 around launch
• Traffic to T-MobileMyTouch.com was highest after the release of the celebrity filled television commercial, indicating T-Mobile held off on a media blitz around the MyTouch until after it was released
• Though interest in the MyTouch is less than the G1, it has attracted more consistent interest. Even at 7 weeks post launch, interest in the MyTouch has not fallen off from prelaunch interest, while interest in the G1 had fallen off sharply from levels seen prior to launch

Interest, of course, is only half the story. To truly understand how the MyTouch launch fared against the G1 launch, we’d have to look at the impact on Upgrades and Gross Add Orders around the time of the launches.

These charts are looking at the volume of Customer Gross Add Orders (Those adding a line to their account), Prospect Gross Add Orders (Shoppers purchasing a phone and plan), and Upgrades (Existing Customers purchasing a new phone for an existing line of service) for the months surrounding each device’s launch. Compete was able to attribute many of the increases seen in the charts to the phone launches as orders typically increased dramatically beginning the day of each launch (including the Customer specific MyTouch launch in July)

• Though the MyTouch was released to all shoppers in August, Customers were able upgrade to the MyTouch in July – driving the increase in Upgrades
• Though interest in the MyTouch around launch time was significantly less than interest in the G1 around its launch, the effect on sales appears similar. Order volumes were higher with the G1 launch, but T-Mobile experienced a 103% increase in upgrades in July 2009 compared to a 20% increase in upgrades in October 2008. This not only indicates a larger impact on Upgrades with the MyTouch launch (as compared to the G1 launch), but also points to the success of T-Mobile’s “Customer First” approach. Not only did both T-Mobile launches lead to increases in Upgrades, but the MyTouch launch also likely drove increases in Customer satisfaction as Customers enjoyed a period of exclusivity
• The G1 launch definitely appears to have had a larger impact on Prospect Gross Add orders than the MyTouch launch, likely due to less offline fanfare than was seen with the G1

One thing that we haven’t discussed in detail is the fundamental differences between the two launches. The media blitz around the G1, prior to launch, was intense as Google was also pushing its first Android device. Beyond local market campaigns (skydivers in SF for example), publicity around the MyTouch prior to launch was concentrated online. As seen in the first chart, it wasn’t until after the launch that Whoopi Goldberg, Phil Jackson, and Jesse James came together for the commercial. This is a different approach than we’ve seen in the past from Carrier’s launching marquee devices, and it will be very interesting to see if this strategy leads to sustained interest and sales in the MyTouch into the holiday season.

Last summer, I wrote about the growing interest in Unified Communication Solutions and the implications for telecom providers. As a refresher, we think of Unified Communications (UC) as technology that offers users choices in how they manage communications from home phones, voicemail, video services, email, etc. Since last year, I have seen the likes of AT&T, Google and Comcast introduce and announce UC solutions that are simply posing as very cool apps for your mobile phone. Today these apps operate on your Smartphone and allow you to manage content across your home phone, voicemail, video service, email, SMS text and PC.

Comcast’s new converged mobile application for the iPhone and iPod Touch provides a great example of on-the-go converged mobile apps. This Comcast app will provide one-stop access to key features of Comcast Digital Voice, Digital Cable and high-speed Internet services. This includes giving customers the ability to read and compose emails from Comcast.net, listen to home voice mail from one mailbox, manage landline voicemail through a visual interface, forward home calls to the iPhone, check TV listings, watch on-demand movie trailers, synch all universal address book contacts to the iPhone and add pictures to their favorite contacts. Wow!

In addition, there are the tried and true niche players out there such as YouMail, CallWave, PhoneFusion and Grand Central (now Google Voice) who have gained prominence in the visual voicemail / voice to text space. These solutions allow you to instantly read transcripts of voicemails, screen calls and manage greetings by caller. Let’s not forget Apple’s MobileMe service that pushes new email, contacts, web bookmarks, and calendar events over the air to iPhone, Mac, and PC so that a user stays in perfect sync.

So there are several solutions out there with the ability to manage your calls, messages, text and emails so that you can be found (or not…), but does the average consumer really crave this ability to unify communication and content from their mobile phone? Or are they simply seeking the next great killer app like the rest of us? I decided to take a look at the “tale of the tape” for a perspective on the consumer demand associated with a few of these most popular UC offerings.

The following chart illustrates the monthly engagement trends of consumers who have researched UC providers and the Smartphones we cherish.

• Engagement at UC provider sites grew significantly over the last year, trending upward with the launch of new Smartphones and App stores. This indicates that as consumers adopt more sophisticated handsets, they will also seek the added functionality that wireless applications and content provide.
• Smartphone engagement increased as new handsets were released in the marketplace during late 2008 and mid 2009
• The takeaway here is that UC providers grew engagement steadliy after the launch of the iPhone App store in mid ’08 and continued on a steady climb as RIM (Blackberry) and Palm launched responses to the iPhone and the Apple App store.

It should be no surprise that Apple, RIM and Palm spark interest in the mobile space whenever they launch a new handset. What is interesting to see is the degree to which unified communication solutions also engage and maintain engagement well after the new handsets are launched.

We will continue to monitor the evolution of UC solutions and converged mobile applications from carriers, cable providers, telecommunications providers, OEM’s and content providers and their impact on consumer behavior. After all, we now know that people really do care…