As Senators Barack Obama and John McCain crisscross the country in search of votes, clog the airwaves with advertisements, and tighten their seemingly iron grip in the popular media and blogosphere, it’s no surprise that Americans are paying increasing attention to the race. Compete’s latest data on traffic trends to the candidate’s websites shows Obama maintaining his 2 to 1 advantage online.

Of course for all that’s made of national election data and polls, in the end, the race will be decided in the trenches at the state level. In reality, only a dozen or so “battleground” states hold the keys to the White House next month.

A state-by-state look at the online activities of Americans across the country suggests that voters in certain pockets of the country are following the race more closely that people elsewhere, which could portend lower voter turnout in some key contests. The map and table below compare interest in the election as gauged by the percentage of each state’s residents who visited a candidate’s website or top political blog in September. For comparison, look at a similar post we did last year.

Observations:

• More than residents of any other state, Coloradoans are following the election the closest, at least online. 1 in 8 Coloradoans, who were online in September, visited a candidate’s website or top political blog. This battleground state that has voted Republican in the past 3 elections, is considered by many to be “in-play” for Obama this year.
• Easterners certainly love their politics…if not their politicians. Interest in the race, generally speaking, is highest in the Northeast and greater D.C. area.
• Residents online in other parts of the country, particularly the Deep South are paying considerably less attention to the race. The bottom ten states, in terms of online interest, all hail from traditionally Republican states across the Deep South. The general ambivalence towards this race suggests that despite the addition of Sarah Palin to the ticket, McCain has failed to connect with social conservatives in the Republican Party.

Now this race is really getting interesting.

The announcements in August of Senator Joe Biden and Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as their party’s Vice Presidential candidates have defined the race over the last few weeks. After long trailing in national and battleground polls, fundraising and the all important buzz factor, McCain’s surprising choice served as both a shot in the arm for the GOP base and a punch to the gut for Democrats. An updated Tale of the Tape table now shows a narrowing race on all fronts.

As shown in the chart below, both campaigns got a bump in site traffic after their VP announcements; however, the McCain campaign’s smart tactic of announcing Palin’s name the day after Obama’s speech in Denver helped grab the national media attention away from the Democratic nominee. The ensuing Palin frenzy helped McCain do what was once unthinkable: rival Obama’s online reach for an entire week (albeit the week of the Republican National Convention).

Palin, a political unknown only a few short weeks ago, has had an undeniable impact on the race as she fast becomes a household name across the country. Web searches for Palin totaled 2.8 million on the day of McCain’s announcement, and remained above 1 million through the Republican convention the following week. With the national media unprepared for the pick, Americans turned to Wikipedia in droves to find information on Palin. Nearly 1.2 million people read Palin’s Wikipedia article within the first 36 hours following the announcement, making hers the most popular article on the site in August, and leaving Michael Phelps just a silver medal to go with his eight golds from Beijing.

Not only is Palin driving more people to McCain’s campaign, but importantly, Palin is bringing out more women. The gender split among JohnMcCain.com visitors has shifted from 48% female prior to Palin’s announcement, to 52% over the past two weeks. Regardless of whether these are GOP faithful just now warming to McCain’s candidacy, or disaffected Clinton supporters testing the Palin waters, even a modest female break toward McCain could spell trouble for Obama.

Coming at the end of August, Palin’s entry in the race had only a modest impact on McCain’s FaceTime share last month; however, McCain was still able to make up ground on Obama thanks in large part to his growing website traffic, as well as continued sharp attack advertisements found on YouTube (as well as other video sharing websites.) The FaceTime metric measures total time spent with candidates online and the chart below illustrates the degree to which McCain and Obama are attracting the attention of voters across leading social networks and video sharing websites as well as on each candidate’s official sites. In just four months, McCain’s FaceTime share has risen five-fold from 7% to 38%.

In addition to popular attack ads launched in July, which continued to get significant play last month, the McCain camp found viral success last month with a video staring Joe Biden himself. The ad, “Joe Biden on Barack Obama” which features a clip of Biden questioning Obama’s readiness to be president, has registered nearly a million views to date. Obama also found YouTube success in August with his “Seven” ad, which paints McCain as out of touch on the economy and criticizes his ownership of multiple homes. While Obama has long been the political king of YouTube, this latest video was his first in over six months to register close to a million views, whereas McCain has posted three videos in the past two months that have attracted a million or more views.

Historically, the selection of a VP candidate has had little impact on the results come Election Day. In this race of multiple “firsts,” however, and with less than 50 days remaining before American’s cast their votes, history could be trumped once again.

Just when it seemed the ailing economy, soaring oil prices and a historically unpopular president would doom John McCain’s electoral aspirations, a funny thing happened while Barack Obama and his media entourage were taking last month’s overseas mid-summer victory lap: America seems to have tired a bit of Obama’s celebrity status, dulling, at least slightly, his glow of invulnerability. Now, with the recent Georgia/Russia conflict causing voters to rethink Obama’s preparedness for the world stage, national polls narrowing, falling site traffic, not to mention 2012 aspirant Hillary Clinton’s posturing for another run, Obama’s success in the fall is less assured than it appeared only a few short weeks ago.

John McCain, given up for dead last summer, has had a surprisingly successful past couple of months. After almost of year of convincing most that his campaign lacked anything in the way of a cohesive online strategy, McCain’s camp has seized on the Internet of late to distribute satirical attack ads to define Obama for the American public. Like Mike Huckabee last winter, the relatively underfunded McCain camp has leveraged YouTube to generate free publicity for his campaign. The ads “Celeb” and “The One,” McCain’s most virally successful so far, along with the related well-publicized fight McCain picked with debutant Paris Hilton, helped the presumptive Republican nominee finally get voters to stop and consider that Obama still has to win in November before he can occupy the White House.

The FaceTime chart below illustrates the degree to which McCain, Obama and Ralph Nader are attracting the attention of voters and highlights the degree to which recent developments have helped McCain become much more competitive online. The FaceTime metric looks across candidates’ official websites as well as their related sites on places such as MySpace, Facebook, YouTube, and Meetup.com, to measure the total time voters spend with candidates. After months of trailing Obama by a nearly 9 to 1 margin, these well-timed videos helped McCain’s FaceTime share jump to 26% in July…not bad for a candidate mocked for his lack of web savvy.

McCain tactics seem to have worked, so one can only expect more of the same in the weeks leading up to Election Day. Next week’s Democratic Convention will broadcast Obama into tens of millions of American homes. It will be interesting to see whether or not, under the scrutiny of the national stage and the pressure of a resurgent opponent, voters will see in Obama a man ready to lead the nation come January.

Fueled by a 65% rebound in visitors to his website, Barack Obama recently reported raising a near record $52 million during the month of June. This haul represented a significant boost from the $22 million he raised in May when he was still in a heated battle with Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination. While the total is indeed staggering, less reported was a recent Washington Post analysis that found that only $1.8 million (or 3.5%) of this sum was given by former Hillary Clinton donors.

Perhaps they are waiting for an olive branch vice presidential invitation. Or maybe, they are biding their time hoping Obama stumbles come November, paving the way for a Clinton resurrection in 2012. Whatever the underlying reason, it seems that Clinton’s most active supporters have yet to rally behind Obama.

The FaceTime chart below illustrates the degree to which the Democratic candidates have attracted the attention of voters throughout the race. The FaceTime metric quantifies the total amount of time voters spent online each month with candidates across their official website as well as their related sites on places such as MySpace, Facebook, YouTube, and Meetup.com. Even though Clinton ended her campaign on June 7th, for the month she still managed to grab 15% of Democratic FaceTime, while the remaining share went almost entirely to Obama.

Further, the chart below illustrates the degree to which Obama’s official website is attracting once active Hillary supporters (defined as those who made three or more website visits to HillaryClinton.com during the final two months of her candidacy). Through July 19th, Obama’s site had only managed to attract the attention of 11% of Clinton’s formerly active supporters.

In response, the Obama’s have recently ratcheted up their outreach to women, hoping to bring this large group of Clinton supporters into the fold. Of course Obama has proven himself to be a masterful organizer and fundraiser, able to raise millions at the drop of an email. With all Obama has going for him at this point in the race, and in lieu of all the baggage the GOP standard bearer (John McCain) carries, whether or not Clinton hold-outs fall in line may end up not really mattering come November.

Given the struggling economy, rampant Bush fatigue, and a host of other issues, any GOP candidate would seemingly have an insurmountable set of challenges to overcome this fall. John McCain’s task is even greater, in some respects, given that while he generally appeals to many moderates and independents, social conservatives (the traditionally large and influential wing of the party) have so far seen little to get excited about in his candidacy. That could be changing.

On the heels of traffic to McCain’s website jumping 90% in June, his campaign recently reported raising over $22M last month. While it comes as no surprise that his haul was well surpassed by rival Barack Obama’s $52M tally, McCain’s improved performance on several fronts in June suggests the presumptive GOP nominee is slowly starting to make inroads with a crucial GOP voting bloc.

The FaceTime chart below illustrates one of the challenges McCain faces. The FaceTime metric quantifies the total amount of time voters spend online with candidates across their official website as well as their related sites on places such as MySpace, Facebook, YouTube, and Meetup.com. Even after McCain sewed up the nomination in March, candidates no longer in the race continue to grab the attention of voters. Social conservatives Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, for example, combined to capture 14% of GOP FaceTime in June, and they haven’t been candidates for months (though their names, particularly Romney’s, continue to be mentioned as leading running mate options).

John McCain’s overtures to the “right” over the past few weeks, as well as speculation that he could choose a conservative for the ticket, is helping him attract one-time supporters of his former rivals to his camp. The chart below compares the percentage of “active” supporters of Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney (defined as those who made three or more website visits during the final two months of their respective candidacies) who visited John McCain’s website during the past couple of months. After struggling in April and May, McCain fared much better last month among these voters, attracting roughly 10% from each camp.

In the end, the race is likely to come down largely to money. The candidates’ official tallies will make the headlines, and given Obama’s base of support and McCain’s pledge to accept public financing (Obama reversed his earlier pledge to do the same), McCain is unlikely to ever approach Obama’s fundraising prowess. But there is more than one way to fund a campaign and the GOP has proven in times past and so far in this contest that it can counter, if not surpass, the Democratic party’s populist appeal by tapping well-healed donors to contribute at the state and national party levels.

Heading into the late summer, if the “right” is finally awakening from their post-primary slumber, we could have a contest after all.

Barack Obama heads into the general election with several key advantages over John McCain, not the least of which is his campaign’s deep pockets and proven ability to raise millions at the drop of an email.

Last week Obama reversed his position on public campaign financing, opting instead to go it alone. Yesterday I had the opportunity to discuss this and other issues surrounding the Obama campaign on the Fox Business Channel’s Money for Breakfast program. Here is the video of the segment: