Just got back from CTIA in Vegas, and I have to admit I was a bit disappointed this year. There were very few of the blockbuster product launches typical of the show. In the ever-present race to discover the elusive ‘iPhone killer’, there were only a few notable device announcements (Sprint’s Samsung Instinct being a highlight), even though a number of companies positioned their next device as the latest and greatest to take on the AT&T/Apple juggernaut.

This story has been the same since Apple announced the iPhone over a year ago. Now that the shine has worn off, it is time to take another look to see if anyone has emerged as the Apple assassin. Given that the majority of wireless shoppers plan to use the online channel to research their next purchase, we took a look at the online interest in the iPhone and its competitive set. What we found is that the biggest competitor for the iPhone is . . . wait for it . . . the iPhone!

No surprise, but the recently launched 16GB iPhone is the most heavily cross-shopped device amongst online shoppers who consider the 8GB iPhone by hitting a product detail page on att.com.

Given that most cross consideration occurs within a particular carrier, things get a little more interesting when we look at the devices that are cross-shopped across carriers. By looking at the cross consideration of the iPhone across carriers, you can start to get a picture of the early favorites for the devices that are most likely to draw interest away from the iPhone.

It raised a few eyebrows at the time, but when Verizon Wireless CMO Mike Lanman said that the LG Voyager would “kill the iPhone” upon its unveiling last October, he may have been onto something. The iPhone isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, but Lanman’s device has proven to be the iPhone’s primary competitor the past six months.

The volumes may not seem high, but the fact that 4% of everyone who viewed the iPhone on att.com in February also viewed the Voyager on verizonwireless.com represents a healthy interest. That number did drop to under 3% in March, with T-Mobile picking up the extra interest across the lineup of Blackberry Pearl, refurbished T-Mobile Dash, and the Blue Blackberry Pearl.

The fact that a refurbished device is now in the consideration set for the iPhone may also be indicative that the iPhone has finally fallen from its illustrious perch into the realm of other plain old ‘cool’ wireless devices.

To look at the newest of the iPhones, you can see that the cross-consideration of the 16GB iPhone looks a little different. This higher-priced device skews heavily towards Verizon Wireless, indicating a less price sensitive consumer who is comparing Verizon’s pricier service and devices versus T-Mobile.

The Voyager still stands as the biggest competitor to the various iPhone models in the market, but with overall interest levels falling in line with other popular handsets, you can start to sense the need for the Cupertino crew to put out the next generation iPhone device. Mr. Lanman is waiting.

Both mobile phones and online social networks keep today’s consumers connected, and their roles seem to be converging. Currently, wireless content providers are in a position that could enable them to leverage the unique properties of mobility in combination with the power of social networking to reach the desirable segment of downtimers; the 28 million US adults who have jobs with significant downtime that do not sit in front of a computer all day. One clear example of this trend can be seen in the way mobile phones are beginning to take on tasks consumers traditionally did over their computers. Almost 45% of current wireless customers already manage their account to some extent on their handset (viewing or paying their bill, viewing minutes, etc.).

In the online world, Compete currently sees social networkers frequenting an average of three social networking sites such as MySpace, Linked-In and other online communities that allow users to create and link profiles. Despite this busy networking schedule, these same online socialites say there is still room in their lives for more sites. Forty-five percent of social networkers say they would be willing to participate in at least four social networks (7% would join 10 or more), leaving an opening wireless companies can help fill.

Continue reading “Social Networking: Still space for one more profile?” »

As wireless carriers launch broadcast services like mediaFLO and the search for a target market begins, both carriers and publishers can immediately cater to the untapped well of downtimers, the 28 million US adults who have jobs with significant downtime that do not sit in front of a computer all day. These 28 million consumers can view content during work hours where there is little competition for them from other media. Mobile TV has the power to deliver clear benefits to this group.

To date, only a few consumers have shown dedicated interest in the early mobile TV products. Just 3.5% of online mobile content research is devoted to mobile video. Although there was a spike in interest last year during March, April and May, on average less than 0.7% of visitors to major carrier websites each month viewed information about mobile TV in 2006.

The good news is that this interest primarily comes from hardcore users of online communities and fantasy sports, both of which are ‘downtime’ activities that can be enhanced by an always-available connection to information. In a recent Compete survey, 65% of wireless shoppers said they would be willing to accept regular advertising in exchange for free or discounted mobile content. This could signal that the timing is ripe for mobile marketing to piggy-back off of the expected growth in mobile TV.

Consumers also appear to be increasingly comfortable purchasing content on the handset. Traditionally, wireless users report a preference for buying content on their computer rather than on their handset because of the ease of browsing large content libraries. In a recent Compete study, however, 51% of wireless content buyers said they bought content on their handset. They reported choosing handset purchase because it was easier and faster than buying on a website or in a store. Combine this trend with the fact that mobile video purchasers buy an average of 3.4 video clips per year, and it becomes clear that there is an emerging comfort with purchasing and consuming mobile video on the handset, even in the limited form that it has largely been available.

Be sure to check out the blog tomorrow, which will look at mobile content as it relates to social networking.

From the desk of Compete’s Wireless practice.

With a first glance at holiday shopping behavior, there seems to be a fertile opportunity for the much anticipated iPhone. With over 33% of all wireless phones now being music enabled, Compete found that holiday interest in music phones made up over 53% of all December cellphone shopping interest. There were just over 3 million total music phone shoppers in December, and almost as many iPod shoppers, with 2.7 million consumers evaluating iPods online, something that would seemingly signal a perfect opportunity for a peanut butter and chocolate combination.

Surprisingly, through Compete’s unique perspective of online behavior, Compete found that only 5% of all cellphone shoppers also evaluated an iPod in December, and only 3% viewed both a music phone and an iPod.

This lack of overlap illustrates the clear delineation that currently exists between music players and cellphones, the very gap the iPhone is hoping to bridge. One way to do this is to focus on the current iPod segment, especially since among consumers who shopped for both an iPod and a cellphone, 63% of those cellphones were music enabled.

When Mr. Jobs announced his intention of selling 10 million iPhones in 2008, you would think the current iPod community is ripe for the picking. Maybe, but break out the iBates. Even among the diehard segment of iPod shoppers who said they are very likely to buy an iPhone, only 6% said they would pay over $400.

A week after the historic announcement of the iPhone, Compete behaviorally targeted online iPod shoppers to get their take on the supposed must-haveware. 75% of these iPod shoppers had already heard of the iPhone, and a healthy 20% said they would postpone their next cellphone purchase to wait for it. 20% also said they would postpone their next music player purchase, not bad for a device unavailable for the next six months.

What does this mean for the carriers? The good news for Cingular is that 12% of iPod shoppers said they would be very likely to switch carriers to get the iPhone. The bad news is that of the people who are not willing to switch, over 30% cite Cingular’s service plan pricing, and another 35% cite Cingular’s coverage. Of the people not likely to switch, almost 40% said they had no interest in purchasing a combination music player and phone, and over 55% said their current carrier has cellphones that meet their needs.

It is clear that Apple and Cingular are targeting a niche market with a higher priced, dual threat device, but the biggest barrier remains the price. As the RAZR and the recent influx of consumer oriented smartphones have proven, the magic number seems to be closer to $200, or a couple hundred free iTunes.

For more information please email wirelesspractice@compete.com.

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• apple.com
• cingular.com
• itunes.com

In September, NewsCorp COO Peter Chermin said that ‘most’ of YouTube’s traffic comes from Chermin’s MySpace property. Traffic being referred between two of the highest profile sites on the internet is nothing new, but when it potentially influences the suite of services catering to the insatiable teen audience that Chermin purchased, you pull up a chair.

“Given that most of their traffic comes from us, if we build adequate, if not superior, competitors, I think we ought to be able to match them, if not exceed them.” Chermin told a group of investors at an industry conference a little over a month ago. With online traffic, social networking warfare, and owners of the Simpsons in the mix, we just knew we had to chime in.

To be specific, Chermin estimated that 60-70% of YouTube’s traffic comes from MySpace. This could be true, but it doesn’t look that way from our perch on the sidelines (and only in the U.S.). During the month of Chermin’s statement, we actually saw that only 10% of YouTube’s traffic came from MySpace, a slight decrease from previous months.

On a pure volume basis, Chermin should choose his words carefully, since 7,205,330 people may have left MySpace for YouTube, but 6,127,909 also left YouTube to visit Chermin’s profile on MySpace.

The impact of YouTube may lead to the increased emphasis that Chermin puts on MySpace Video, but Chermin could have made a case based on the volume of his MySpacers linked up to Photobucket.com. We saw that Photobucket.com consistently ranked as one of the top 10 referrers to MySpace from July through September, no big surprise, but another reason the video opportunity is ripe for MySpace without the slap at YouTube.

There is no denying the link between these social networking powerhouses, but it just may not be as pronounced as Chermin would want us to believe. Lucky for him.

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• YouTube.com
• Myspace.com
• Photobucket.com