Will the Blackberry Bold Keep RIM Customers from Churning to Apple?
Written by Elaine Warner (contact - e-mail) -- July 10th, 2008 |
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The new Apple iPhone is coming out on July 11th, and the media buzz surrounding its launch has been a bit over-the-top. It remains to be seen if the iPhone 3G will make as big a splash as some analysts say it will, but if does there could be disruptive consequences for its competitors. So who’s the most at risk? I took a look at OEM customers’ affinity for Apple to find out.
For simplicity’s sake, let’s say that “affinity for Apple” equates to likelihood to visit apple.com. The chart below depicts the likelihood that owners of each company’s handsets go to apple.com. On this scale, the average Internet user would score a “1”, meaning they are no more or less likely than anybody else online to visit apple.com. In contrast, as the chart below shows, owners of each OEM’s handsets are much more likely to visit apple.com.
- All OEM owners are at least twice as likely to visit apple.com as the average Internet user. This is likely due to the tech-friendly nature of the majority of these OEMs’ user bases.
- RIM owners are over 60% more likely to visit apple.com as compared to the other three OEMs listed.
Of these four OEMs, RIM (Blackberry) seems the most at risk by Apple’s mobile presence. Keep in mind that I didn’t look at exactly what these consumers were doing on the apple.com domain, nor did I look at behavior around any particular product launches which could alter these results significantly. However, just knowing that your customers are more than 60% more likely than your competitors’ customers to behave in ANY specific way is notable. What is it about Apple that’s drawing RIM customers in?
Industry analysts are predicting that Apple, by adding business-user functionality in the iPhone 3G, and RIM, with the introduction of the Blackberry Bold later this year, are on a collision course. The data above certainly point that way. Both companies launched strong marketing campaigns this year, and both appear to be pleasing Wall Street analysts. But successful launches of both the iPhone 3G and the Blackberry Bold will almost certainly mean that each company will draw business away from the other’s customer base. Who will win this grudge match? It looks like we could find out before the end of 2008.
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July 10th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
What data/methodology was used to define a user as an owner of a particular handset?
July 10th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
I was wondering the same thing Dan
July 10th, 2008 at 4:07 pm
i somehow smell the beggining of the end for RIM
July 10th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
Hi all, in order to determine an owner of a particular handset brand, we look at their clickstream.
If a person went to an OEM site and we observed “customer-centric” behavior on that site, we call them an owner of that OEM’s brand of handsets. In this case customer-centric behavior means visiting the handset support section or the application download section of the OEM’s site.
July 10th, 2008 at 6:13 pm
RIM/Blackburry may have to think about agile solution!
July 11th, 2008 at 12:58 am
The reason why RIM users are more likely to visit Apple than Nokia or Motorola users is that RIM and Apple are both cool. Collision course it is, and likely to won by Apple. RIM just does not have the product range to compete with Apple.
July 14th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
Although the iPhone is absolutely a sweet gadget, in terms of utility, I don’t see it overtaking the Blackberry until apple offers a version with a keyboard. I read tons of blogs where people insist its just too annoying to type text messages, etc., using the touchpad. One Apple does this, hoever, or at least offers an optional version with this, it will be game over. The product is too hot and Apple has too much brand equity… http://www.readtheanswer.com/index.php?RTA=web2
Rob
July 14th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
The iPhone may be a good rival for the Blackberry but being limited to one network really erases many people’s temptation to purchase one. The Blackberry is offered on so many networks so that alone may prevent people from converting to Apple users!
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