Wanted Dead or Alive: The iPhone Killer
Written by Ryan Burke (contact - e-mail) -- April 16th, 2008 | Recommend ThisJust got back from CTIA in Vegas, and I have to admit I was a bit disappointed this year. There were very few of the blockbuster product launches typical of the show. In the ever-present race to discover the elusive ‘iPhone killer’, there were only a few notable device announcements (Sprint’s Samsung Instinct being a highlight), even though a number of companies positioned their next device as the latest and greatest to take on the AT&T/Apple juggernaut.
This story has been the same since Apple announced the iPhone over a year ago. Now that the shine has worn off, it is time to take another look to see if anyone has emerged as the Apple assassin. Given that the majority of wireless shoppers plan to use the online channel to research their next purchase, we took a look at the online interest in the iPhone and its competitive set. What we found is that the biggest competitor for the iPhone is . . . wait for it . . . the iPhone!
No surprise, but the recently launched 16GB iPhone is the most heavily cross-shopped device amongst online shoppers who consider the 8GB iPhone by hitting a product detail page on att.com.
Given that most cross consideration occurs within a particular carrier, things get a little more interesting when we look at the devices that are cross-shopped across carriers. By looking at the cross consideration of the iPhone across carriers, you can start to get a picture of the early favorites for the devices that are most likely to draw interest away from the iPhone.
It raised a few eyebrows at the time, but when Verizon Wireless CMO Mike Lanman said that the LG Voyager would “kill the iPhone” upon its unveiling last October, he may have been onto something. The iPhone isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, but Lanman’s device has proven to be the iPhone’s primary competitor the past six months.
The volumes may not seem high, but the fact that 4% of everyone who viewed the iPhone on att.com in February also viewed the Voyager on verizonwireless.com represents a healthy interest. That number did drop to under 3% in March, with T-Mobile picking up the extra interest across the lineup of Blackberry Pearl, refurbished T-Mobile Dash, and the Blue Blackberry Pearl.
The fact that a refurbished device is now in the consideration set for the iPhone may also be indicative that the iPhone has finally fallen from its illustrious perch into the realm of other plain old ‘cool’ wireless devices.
To look at the newest of the iPhones, you can see that the cross-consideration of the 16GB iPhone looks a little different. This higher-priced device skews heavily towards Verizon Wireless, indicating a less price sensitive consumer who is comparing Verizon’s pricier service and devices versus T-Mobile.
The Voyager still stands as the biggest competitor to the various iPhone models in the market, but with overall interest levels falling in line with other popular handsets, you can start to sense the need for the Cupertino crew to put out the next generation iPhone device. Mr. Lanman is waiting.
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April 16th, 2008 at 3:56 pm
I love Verizon’s service, but I would like a iPhone. So I guess I have to live with LG Voyager.
April 17th, 2008 at 5:25 am
I’m not sure if this competitive set even makese sense. What is the 6085? How can you compare candybars with the iPhone. Even featurwise it is clear some of them can’t be the iphone killer because the real killers are not in the competitive set.
Why don’t you include the Nokia n95 8gb, Samsung F700, LG Viewty, LG KS20, HTC Touch Dual (to mention a few) who stand next to and beat the iPhone. Maybe iPhone v2.0 stands a chance but a phone in 2008 with EDGE - what is happening is just buzz, no different from everyone wanting a mac just because its “cool”.
April 17th, 2008 at 11:37 am
Interesting data. We’re still bitter that the iPhone is only with AT&T… still waiting for T-Mobile’s iPhone TRUE iPhone killer!
April 17th, 2008 at 8:51 pm
Dilip - you’re right about thel ikely competitive set, but we didn’t pick the competitive set here - consumers did. All we did is report on the online cross shopping of people viewing a product detail page of the iPhone - this is an objecitve view.
April 24th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
Late to comment, but interesting post. The iPhone in its current iteration sort of falls into that tweener status making it tough to compare. It has the style and interface that makes it a more consumer-oriented device. But its feature set often makes it natural to compare with smartphones (even though it technically doesn’t offer all of their features.)
The most interesting thing to me is that demand is up for smartphones across the board, even post-iPhone. And despite all the online hype, I only occasionally see iPhones in the wild. But you can’t go two feet now without bumping into someone (no longer just business types) using a Blackberry Pearl, Palm Centro, an HTC device, etc. The iPhone definitely gets all the attention, but the smartphone market as a whole doesn’t seem to be hurting too much despite its presence.
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