If Clicks Were Votes, the New Hampshire Primary Winners Are… (or as goes the swines, so go the moose)
Written by Lauren Moores (contact - e-mail) -- January 7th, 2008 | Share - Save - E-mailSitting at home over the holidays, working a bit, and watching television, I was inundated with New Hampshire presidential candidate ads. Already? With the Iowa Caucus on January 3rd and New Hampshire 5 days later on the 8th, my immediate question was, “What does our panel data say about these two events and what predictions can I make?”
I looked at 5 consecutive days of consumer internet behavior, immediately prior to the Iowa caucus, to analyze user visits to the presidential candidate sites. As expected, nationwide, Iowa users were the most politically active, with one out of five Iowans actively looking at campaign websites followed by 6.5% of people from all of New Hampshire.
Based on the traffic that each candidate site received, Compete definitely had the inside scoop on user clicks, and would have accurately predicted the results in Iowa. The percentage of visits across the sites for all candidate sites show:
As New Hampshire prepares to go to the polls tomorrow, the results of the Iowa Caucus appear to have had a direct impact on New Hampshire users’ interest in the candidates’ websites. This interest could be curiosity or it could be an indicator of tides turning, as shown in the chart below. Data was aggregated at 3 different period intervals for the last 10 days.
If we base votes on site visits alone, then we predict Obama and McCain as the New Hampshire primary winners.
And one more fun fact, early indicators show Obama winning the Michigan primary on January 15th for the Democrats, and Huckabee and Paul too close to call for the Republicans. But then again, the tide can turn, as shown above.
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January 7th, 2008 at 11:24 pm
Hello New Hampshire,
Lets wake up from the primary fireworks and look at the responsibility you bear.
No one can deny that the last 7 years of this administration has been an unbelievable series of tragic flaws, all from the hubris of men ready for the grave.
We are at the brink, both domestically and internationally, potential for disasterous events spinning out-of-control, have not been greater since 1961.
IF WE COULD CHOSE ONE PERSON MOST QUALIFIED TO BE PRESIDENT, AT THE TOP OF THE LIST WOULD BE FORMER PRESIDENTS. OF THE FORMER PRESIDENTS, EVEN THE MOST WICKEDLY PARTISAN COULD NOT DENY THAT THIS COUNTRY WAS ON THE VERGE OF ENTERING A GOLDEN ERA AFTER THE 8 YEARS OF BILL CLINTON’S PRESIDENCY. NOW AT THE TOP OF THE LIST OF FORMER PRESIDENTS, STILL ALIVE BILL CLINTON HAS TO BE AT THE TOP OF THE LIST.
HILLARY CLINTON KNOWS THE WHITE HOUSE BETTER THAN ANY CANDIDATE. SHE LIVED IN THE WHITE HOUSE FOR 8 YEARS. SHE WILL BE A COMPOSED STRICT ADMINISTRATOR, ALL WILL BE ACCOUNTABLE, AND ULTIMATE RESPONSIBILTY WILL NOT BE DELEGATED. SHE PUT UP WITH THE MASQUARADE OF BILL’S PERSONAL FOLLIES, AND THE CONSTANT PURSUIT OF A PACK OF LYNCHMAN, ALL WITH COMPOSURE AND GRACE. I WANT SOMEONE WITH THAT FORTITUDE AND UNDERSTANDING LEADING THIS COUNTRY AS WE ENTER INTO THE MOST DANGEROUS PERIOD SINCE WWII, AND 13 DAYS OF OCTOBER 1961.
WHO ELSE IS REALLY MORE QUALIFIED, AND SHE BRINGS WITH HER A CONFIDENT AND PARTNER OF GLOBAL STATURE AS AN ELDER STATESMAN.
HOW CAN WE ALLOW OURSELVES TO BE SEDUCED BY THE CHARISMA OF BARACK, WHEN SO MUCH IS AT STAKE.
WAKE UP AND VOTE FOR REASON AND FORTITUDE, VOTE FOR HILLARY.
January 8th, 2008 at 3:48 am
“HOW CAN WE ALLOW OURSELVES TO BE SEDUCED BY THE CHARISMA OF BARACK, WHEN SO MUCH IS AT STAKE.”
Well, to answer that it is an easy task. Hillary has been nothing but secretive, defensive, and appears to be very unapproachable by the media.
She’s losing this on her own. Just her comment “I’M IN IT TO WIN IT!” shows she is only concerned about herself.
I will vote for Barack Obama in November.
December 23rd, 2008 at 11:41 am
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