If Clicks Equaled Votes in November – Republican Candidates
Written by Matt Pace (contact - e-mail) -- December 11th, 2007 |
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As the states prepare to begin awarding their delegates next month, analyzing the size, geographic and demographic makeup of each candidate’s online following (in this case visitors to the candidates’ websites) offers insight, beyond the never ending stream of opinion polls, as to who is likely to win these primaries and caucuses and secure their party’s nomination.
Yesterday we looked at state of the Democratic race, and today we turn our attention to the wide open GOP contest, where six of the eight candidates are considered frontrunners.
The table below compares the site traffic to each candidate’s website in November, as well as the demographic composition of visitors over the past three months. Traffic across the entire Republican field rose by an average of 34% in November, versus 11% among the Democratic candidate sites, a signal that Republicans are finally starting to pay attention to the race.
Attracting nearly half a million visitors to his website in November, Ron Paul continues to distance himself from the GOP pack and is benefiting from his supporters’ effective online activism and use of social networks. Six in ten visitors to RonPaul2008.com are male, the most of any candidate, and 39% of his visitors have household incomes greater than $100K, which is sure to catch the envious eye of rivals and helps explain his recent recording setting fundraising efforts.
Fred Thompson may be the experienced actor, but Mike Huckabee’s recent “Huck-a-boom” in support is evidence that he’s filling in quite nicely for Thompson in the role of the “Great Conservative Hope.” Huckabee’s site traffic rose 89% in November largely at Thompson’s expense. Among the top-tier candidates, Mitt Romney attracts the largest percentage of female visitors.
Now we’ll compare where the leading Republican candidates are drawing their online support. The following maps show where visitors to each candidate’s website reside in the U.S. Each dot represents 25 visitors (the dots themselves are randomly plotted within each state.) The last map is shaded based on the candidate who attracted the most visitors from each state in November.
Observations:
- Paul attracts the largest online following not only is his home state of Texas, but he also outdraws all of his rivals in their home states as well (Giuliani—New York; Huckabee—Arkansas; McCain—Arizona; Romney—Michigan and Massachusetts; and Thompson—Tennessee). This certainly runs counter to the notion that Paul’s support is localized to a few pockets (read: basements) around the country.
- One area of the country where Paul doesn’t dominate is in the Deep South where Huckabee’s Evangelical appeal appears to be resonating with much of the GOP base.
- Giuliani and McCain’s decision to concede Iowa and focus instead on New Hampshire is evident on the maps. All of the candidates, with the exception of Fred Thompson, are attracting considerable attention among New Hampshirites. As several of the candidates’ (Romney and McCain in particular) fortunes are likely to rise or fall in the Granite State, the January 8th primary could be a bloodbath.
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December 11th, 2007 at 8:13 pm
I think that Ron Paul may be outdrawing his opponents because people are going to his web site after hearing him just to see if he is really for real! I think as time goes by his traffic will flatten out.
December 11th, 2007 at 8:38 pm
Small Business Marketing: you’re stupid.
Please go to Freedocumentaries.com and learn something!
RON PAUL ‘08!
December 11th, 2007 at 10:51 pm
A couple things about Ron Paul supporters.. Come blizzard, storm or disaster Paul supporters will make it to the polls. You arent going to sway many supporters to back another candidate for any reason.
Something special is going on.
December 11th, 2007 at 10:55 pm
Small Business Marketing: please ignore stupid comments.
But anyway, I think Ron Paul is attracting attention for many reasons, one of which may be that he is an honest-to-goodness small government conservative. And he’s the only Republican against the war–that makes his pool of potential supporters pretty big in a race where 70% of the American people want out of Iraq.
I, for one, will be supporting him because he is a breath of fresh air in an otherwise very stuffy Washington DC.
December 11th, 2007 at 11:33 pm
Paul’s site is also the “busiest,” so to speak. He has a large number of articles, press releases, and fundraising in real time. It’s also a big, effective gateway and a central location for his enormous grass roots support. You can go directly from the site to his MeetUp page, MySpace, Facebook, etc.
The large amount of content on the site written by the man himself over the years is a great resource for people to learn what he thinks about issues and not just read “commitment lists” or short soundbite-like descriptions. His is one of the only candidate’s sites to encourage visitors to understand his philosophies.
He’s not just a set of positions based on dogmatic assumptions or focus group-tested pandering. He has consistent beliefs based on his own independent reading and research over many years. A breath of fresh air after what we’ve been getting is exactly right.
December 12th, 2007 at 1:25 am
The big effect Ron Paul’s online support is going to have will likely be in New Hampshire. All that support, and money, and television ads, will likely push him up a lot in the next 3 weeks. I wouldn’t be surprised if he came in 3rd or, even 2nd, in New Hampshire. Never underestimate the power of clicks….
December 12th, 2007 at 3:15 am
The Internet has spoken. Ron Paul for the win! Enjoy the ride.
December 12th, 2007 at 5:43 am
Please go to Freedocumentaries.com and learn something!
I tried to go to this site and it does not exist. Is the spelling incorrect?
Dr. Paul also won in the last Caucus in BOTH, GOP and Open.
http://www.nationalcaucus.com/results
ONLY A Doctor WILL HEAL Our Country,
Freedom4America
December 12th, 2007 at 10:31 am
President Ron Paul – Could He Really Win?
Learn how outside economic and foreign policy events just might elect Ron Paul.
http://www.ronaldholland.com/presidentronpaul.htm in a two part article on how current events outside the political process could elect Ron Paul as President.
December 12th, 2007 at 3:11 pm
ron paul’s numbers actually keep climbing! His numbers since May have boomed, not just in terms of web visits, but also blog mentions, fundraising, and seach queries. Check the stats at this post:
http://thetomoreport.blogspot.com/2007/11/2008-presidential-primary-data-tracker.html
December 12th, 2007 at 5:56 pm
Make that freedocumentaries.org , the earlier post has a .com address.
December 15th, 2007 at 11:10 pm
TRY: http://freedocumentaries.org/
December 17th, 2007 at 6:16 pm
ron paul hope for america and the world!
he’s catching on, i’m telling you!
December 17th, 2007 at 6:16 pm
Very interesting. The thing that seems to be missing from this most excellent analysis is the fact that there are so many grassroots created sites for Ron Paul. Since the other candidates do not have the legions of tech savy followers that Ron Paul has would dare say that they do not have as many grassroots created sites where their followers congregate, coordinate, and pontificate. If you take all of the sites devoted to each candidate and compare them to one another I wonder how much more Ron Paul would dominate the field than he already does.
December 17th, 2007 at 9:37 pm
Want an analysis of the grassroots support, as evidenced by meetup groups?
http://svpvril.com/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2783
Remarkable, simply remarkable!
If history tells us anything, we probably have one shot at this folks. If Ron Paul isn’t the Republican nominee, you might as well kiss what’s left of civil liberties, free speech & right to bear arms goodbye. I say this because we’ve seen what happens to campaigns that shake up the staus-quo. The Duopoly & their zombied supporters band together to make new rules that raise the bar for participation by anyone that isn’t in the mainstream of one or the other two camps. This time, it will mean the END OF THE FREE WORLD as we know it. The first thing they will do is pass legislation to control the INTERNET, thus stifilng free speech. That will be only the beginning.
Mark my words, know them well.
December 17th, 2007 at 9:40 pm
Support Ron Paul. This is likely our last chance to turn the ship of state back toward the path of freedom and righteousness. Register Republican, even if it’s only temporary for you. Ron Paul should represent the GOP - and if he doesn’t, we’ll likely get Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama.
Face the music people. It’s not a pretty picture. Either we’ll be in bad shape with hope in distant sight, or we’ll be serfs for the forseeable future.
December 19th, 2007 at 5:57 pm
No matter how the other sites are doing, (great cool images btw) I have never seen such a following behind a presidential candidate before. I think something weird or good is going on. Not sure which just yet BUT the votes will soon tell
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