Subscribe to RSSDecision 2008: How Committed are Republicans to their Candidates?
Yesterday we looked at the state of the race for the Democratic nomination for president by comparing the leading candidates’ success in using their websites to attract and nurture committed supporters.
Today we’ll turn our attention to the other side of the isle and look at the GOP race. Based on national poll data compiled over at RealClearPolitics.com the top GOP contenders are: Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Senator John McCain, former Governor Mitt Romney, former Senator Fred Thompson.
The table below compares average monthly traffic, cross-shopping (the percentage of a site’s traffic who visit a rival’s website) and the average length of visits to each candidate’s website during Q2. Higher site traffic and average stay (a measure of engagement) are both positive signs for a campaign. The longer people stay, the more opportunity campaigns have to inform, rally and solicit funds. With respect to cross-shopping, a lower percentage is generally better, as it means fewer visitors are "˜"kicking-the-tires" over at a rival’s site.
Observations:
- Although still "testing the waters" Fred Thompson’s website averaged the highest monthly traffic in Q2. At this early stage his cross-shopping numbers are quite low due largely to Thompson devotees making up the majority of the traffic to his exploratory committee and numerous "Draft Fred" websites. It’s also a sign that his candidacy is attracting a segment of the GOP base that had not previously been actively engaged with rivals.
- Romney’s site turned a triple play in Q2, leading rivals in site traffic growth (nearly doubling during the quarter); seeing the largest improvement in cross-shopping (visitors were 15% less likely to visit rivals sites in Q2); and longest stay. Romney’s content and media rich website have helped keep visitors on his site an average of a minute and a half longer than rivals.
- Q2 was anything but kind for McCain. While his site traffic appeared steady, a closer look at the monthly data (below) reveals a steep drop-off in support. Not only did McCain attract a lower quantity of visitors to his site during the quarter, but their quality was also poorer as they were more than twice as likely to visit rivals’ sites.
- Giuliani’s scant attention to building an online presence is evident from his performance in Q2. His site attracted the fewest visitors of the top GOP candidates; nearly 1 in 5 of whom visited a rival’s site. In terms of engagement, the average stay on JoinRudy2008.com was less than 4 minutes during Q2, compared with 6 minutes for visits to Mitt Romney’s site.
The charts that follow show each candidate’s monthly performance with respect to site traffic and cross-shopping. The bars represent site traffic, while the lines represent cross-shopping to a particular rival’s website. For example, roughly 160,000 people visited ImWithFred.com in June, 5% of whom visited at least one of his rivals’ websites, and 2% of whom visited JoinRudy2008.com.
- There was certainly pent up excitement among some quarters of the GOP for the launch of Thompson’s exploratory committee in June. His official website attracted nearly 160,000 visitors during its first month; however, only roughly 8,000 (or less than 5%) contributed to his campaign.
- Mitt Romney’s campaign showed momentum in two key areas: His site traffic steadily increased throughout the first half of the year while visitors’ propensity to visit rival sites has trended lower.
- McCain’s site traffic and cross-shopping is moving the exact opposite of Romney’s. His traffic has steadily eroded the past couple of months, while his visitors are increasingly checking out what his rivals have to offer.
- Despite leading in most national polls, Giuliani’s online efforts trail those of his three main rivals. His site appeared stuck in neutral all throughout Q2, as gauged by site traffic, and he has consistently maintained the highest level of rival cross-shopping. This, combined with the near identical cross-shopping of each of his main rivals in June is a signal that Giuliani could be under the most pressure as this race intensifies.
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As Managing Director of Retail and Consumer Products at Compete, Matt Pace is responsible for leading a team of client services professionals who deliver digital intelligence and insights to clients in the retail and consumer packaged good industries. Before Matt joined the Compete Team he was a CPA and senior auditor with Deloitte & Touche. Follow Matt on Twitter @mattpace. |
