Decision 2008: How Committed are Republicans to their Candidates?
Written by Matt Pace (contact - e-mail) -- August 1st, 2007 | Recommend ThisYesterday we looked at the state of the race for the Democratic nomination for president by comparing the leading candidates’ success in using their websites to attract and nurture committed supporters.
Today we’ll turn our attention to the other side of the isle and look at the GOP race. Based on national poll data compiled over at RealClearPolitics.com the top GOP contenders are: Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Senator John McCain, former Governor Mitt Romney, former Senator Fred Thompson.
The table below compares average monthly traffic, cross-shopping (the percentage of a site’s traffic who visit a rival’s website) and the average length of visits to each candidate’s website during Q2. Higher site traffic and average stay (a measure of engagement) are both positive signs for a campaign. The longer people stay, the more opportunity campaigns have to inform, rally and solicit funds. With respect to cross-shopping, a lower percentage is generally better, as it means fewer visitors are ‘”kicking-the-tires” over at a rival’s site.
Observations:
- Although still “testing the waters” Fred Thompson’s website averaged the highest monthly traffic in Q2. At this early stage his cross-shopping numbers are quite low due largely to Thompson devotees making up the majority of the traffic to his exploratory committee and numerous “Draft Fred” websites. It’s also a sign that his candidacy is attracting a segment of the GOP base that had not previously been actively engaged with rivals.
- Romney’s site turned a triple play in Q2, leading rivals in site traffic growth (nearly doubling during the quarter); seeing the largest improvement in cross-shopping (visitors were 15% less likely to visit rivals sites in Q2); and longest stay. Romney’s content and media rich website have helped keep visitors on his site an average of a minute and a half longer than rivals.
- Q2 was anything but kind for McCain. While his site traffic appeared steady, a closer look at the monthly data (below) reveals a steep drop-off in support. Not only did McCain attract a lower quantity of visitors to his site during the quarter, but their quality was also poorer as they were more than twice as likely to visit rivals’ sites.
- Giuliani’s scant attention to building an online presence is evident from his performance in Q2. His site attracted the fewest visitors of the top GOP candidates; nearly 1 in 5 of whom visited a rival’s site. In terms of engagement, the average stay on JoinRudy2008.com was less than 4 minutes during Q2, compared with 6 minutes for visits to Mitt Romney’s site.
The charts that follow show each candidate’s monthly performance with respect to site traffic and cross-shopping. The bars represent site traffic, while the lines represent cross-shopping to a particular rival’s website. For example, roughly 160,000 people visited ImWithFred.com in June, 5% of whom visited at least one of his rivals’ websites, and 2% of whom visited JoinRudy2008.com.
- There was certainly pent up excitement among some quarters of the GOP for the launch of Thompson’s exploratory committee in June. His official website attracted nearly 160,000 visitors during its first month; however, only roughly 8,000 (or less than 5%) contributed to his campaign.
- Mitt Romney’s campaign showed momentum in two key areas: His site traffic steadily increased throughout the first half of the year while visitors’ propensity to visit rival sites has trended lower.
- McCain’s site traffic and cross-shopping is moving the exact opposite of Romney’s. His traffic has steadily eroded the past couple of months, while his visitors are increasingly checking out what his rivals have to offer.
- Despite leading in most national polls, Giuliani’s online efforts trail those of his three main rivals. His site appeared stuck in neutral all throughout Q2, as gauged by site traffic, and he has consistently maintained the highest level of rival cross-shopping. This, combined with the near identical cross-shopping of each of his main rivals in June is a signal that Giuliani could be under the most pressure as this race intensifies.
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Get the 
August 1st, 2007 at 3:03 pm
Too bad you didn’t include Ron Paul which has had a very successfull internet campaign.
http://siteanalytics.compete.com/mittromney.com+johnmccain.com+ronpaul2008.com+?src=wp-blsnp
August 1st, 2007 at 4:24 pm
Why did you exclude Ron Paul??
When will you have data for July on your site?
August 1st, 2007 at 5:21 pm
Bryan and disinter (and future Ron Paul supporting posters) -
Thanks for the questions. We excluded Ron Paul from this analysis for the same reason Tommy Thompson and Sam Brownback were left out. As I mentioned in the post, we chose to focus this analysis on the leading GOP candidates, based on national polling averages. Ron Paul undoubtedly has attracted a loyal online following; however to date, his impact on the race has been limited. I can tell you though that 8% of visitors to RonPaul2008.com visited one of the leading rival GOP’s sites in Q2, up from 6% in Q1.
Take heart, we have additional political posts in the works which will shed light on all of the candidates. Please keep checking back.
Also, disinter, July data will be available by mid August.
Matt
August 1st, 2007 at 5:45 pm
Matt,
I highly recommend you read this:
http://libertyupdate.blogspot.com/2007/08/why-i-dont-support-ron-paul.html
August 1st, 2007 at 8:57 pm
Ron Paul is as much of a contender as Mitt Romney and John McCain are at this point. (McCain already has a fork in his back and Romney isn’t far off.) Sam Brownback is a laughable comparison. I could write a dissertation on how skewed “traditional” polls are towards “traditional” candidates, such as the 4 reviewed in this post - but the preceding link covered the gist of it pretty well. Fact of the matter is, Ron Paul has no chance in the traditional polls, but the incredible groundswell of Internet support has already turned into serious funding for the Paul campaign. You can safely bet that he’s going to do well in the real elections.
Use the Compete data to see for yourself - it’s a shame the first legitimate candidate to ever grow from the Internet can’t even get in the discussion with the company that preaches the value of Internet data:
http://siteanalytics.compete.com/joinrudy2008.com+ronpaul2008.com?metric=uv
August 1st, 2007 at 10:06 pm
You make some bold assertions and predictions ronpaul2008. It’s also great to see you using our site analytics data to bolster your opinions. While I won’t debate the merits of one candidate over another in this forum, I will say that calling Brownback’s campaign “laughable” in comparison to Paul’s seems a stretch and kinda of silly given just the fact that Brownback has so far outraised your candidate.
http://www.nytimes.com/ref/us/politics/2008_EG_FINANCES.html
Paul certainly has an active online army, which no amount of mentioning is likely to satisfy. Be that as it is, we’ve been planning to feature him in an upcoming post. Stay tuned.
August 1st, 2007 at 11:54 pm
Here’s another one:
http://www.micahnelson.com/?p=56
August 2nd, 2007 at 3:29 pm
Matt, that nytimes link is a bit misleading on the surface - the amount a candidate has raised is not nearly as important as how much they have left and the rate they will be intaking over the next few months. According to that link McCain has raised an impressive 26.4M. Except the truth of the matter is that McCain has already spent 90% of that money, and now Ron Paul is on par with him in cash on hand. Likewise Brownback is nearly broke and his campaign has effectively stagnated. Paul’s campaign has barely started pushing outside of the internet. So yes, I think it is fair to say that Paul and Brownback are headed in very opposite directions.
August 2nd, 2007 at 8:43 pm
And another:
http://btetc.blogspot.com/2007/07/on-scientific-polling.html
August 16th, 2007 at 1:27 am
Matt,
Regardless of how well candidates do in landline phone poll of “likely” republican voters, don’t you think it is a bit disingenuous of you to not cover the *leader* in website hits among the GOP candidates?
Don’t you think Ron Paul’s surge of hits in the last 3 months is a little interesting?
What are you thoughts on landline phone polls in this web age? Do you really think they are better than using webstats (as evidence by your reason for not including him)
Ask yourself this: Would you tell your potential customer to trust landline phone polls over compete.com stats in order to gauge popularity?
November 15th, 2007 at 5:35 pm
Matt,
Hmmm… seems your info is wrong…
“Paul’s seems a stretch and kinda of silly given just the fact that Brownback has so far outraised your candidate.
http://www.nytimes.com/ref/us/politics/2008_EG_FINANCES.html ”
According to that site:
Brownback raised $4.2 million
Paul raised $8.3 million
Now to be fair, I am posting on November 15th, and it appears that this article originated on August 1. So back in August Brownback may have been outraising Dr. Paul. There is no way to tell from that link. This is obviously no longer the case.
November 15th, 2007 at 10:24 pm
the game moves fast at this stage of the race. no doubt its constantly changing.