If Clicks Were Votes - Republican Candidates
Written by Andrew Meagher (contact - e-mail) -- July 17th, 2007 | Recommend ThisThe 2008 Presidential election is still over a year away, but the campaign is in full swing. While it’s still far too early to make any predictions about who will win the nominations, we can gauge public interest pretty easily by looking at traffic to each candidate’s website. And with the help of some nifty mapping software that my colleague Max Freiert recently purchased, we can track those traffic patterns on a state-by-state level.
So here’s a look at level of interest by state, as measured by the total number of visits to each of the top Republican candidate’s sites over the past six months:
Mitt Romney
As expected, Romney sees high levels of traffic from Massachusetts and Utah, but there’s surprisingly little intensity from Michigan where Romney was born and where his father served three terms as governor. Romney also has heavy traffic from California, Texas, and Florida, three states rich in electoral votes.
Rudy Giuliani
Not surprisingly, interest in Rudy Giuliani is centered New York. But Giuliani also carves out a swath of heavy traffic from New Jersey west to Illinois, including Pennsylvania and Ohio. He also has decent representation in Florida, though the South as a whole seems to be more interested in other candidates.
Fred Thompson
Latecomer Fred Thompson is already seeing substantial interest across the south, especially from his home state of Tennessee. The main sites supporting Thompson, Fred08.com and ImWithFred.com, have only been live since March and June, respectively. In that short time frame Thompson has gained enough traffic to become a serious contender.
John McCain
McCain sees relative strength from his home state of Arizona, as well as respectable showings in California and several states in the Northeast. But overall interest appears to be waning. The recent shake up of the maverick’s campaign might signal a new beginning, or the beginning of the end.
So that gives us an idea of where the traffic is coming from, but what if clicks were votes? If the Republican Party were to award delegates to candidates based on the number of people visiting from each state, the resulting map would look like this:
There’s no clear majority winner, but Mitt Romney takes the most delegates, fending off an impressive showing by Fred Thompson. Rudy Giuliani takes third, and John McCain comes in a disappointing and distant fourth. Since we can’t figure out a clever-enough method for conducting a runoff, we are ready to declare that Mitt Romney has won the “Republican Mid-Point 2007 Most People Visiting” primary. Congratulations, Mitt.
Come back tomorrow to see how the Democratic candidates stack up…
ATTENTION RON PAUL SUPPORTERS:
Ron Paul will be covered in a follow-up post in the near future. Please check back in to see how he fares.
Did you like that post? You'll love these.
Done reading? subscribe: To get an automatic feed of all future posts subscribe here, or to receive them via email enter your email address in the box in the right column.
Link to This Post:
Posted under: Politics |
Trackback Link | Permalink | 
Get the 
July 17th, 2007 at 1:34 pm
Ron Paul?
July 17th, 2007 at 1:47 pm
(fumbled last post)
Compete Snapshot’s people counts - 17th July 2007, low to high:
johnmccain.com 44,948
fred08.com 46,572
joinrudy2008.com 49,971
mittromney.com 73,913
ronpaul2008.com 78,750
July 17th, 2007 at 1:52 pm
Unfortunately Ron Paul’s didn’t make it into this round of analysis, but we’ve been keeping an eye on him. We’ll have a follow-up post that will track his momentum as he garners more national attention.
July 17th, 2007 at 2:02 pm
A:
We’re certainly keeping tabs on Ron Paul as his campaign gains momentum (and it is quickly). For this analysis we looked at 6 months worth of data, and RonPaul2008.com started ramping up later than the other 4.
See
http://siteanalytics.compete.com/fred08.com+joinrudy2008.com+mittromney.com+johnmccain.com+ronpaul2008.com?metric=uv
for an example.
July 17th, 2007 at 2:09 pm
I figured Ron Paul would be leading after getting the Colbert bump.
July 17th, 2007 at 4:43 pm
Ron Paul should be included in any analysis.. if only to keep his myriad supporters (such as myself) from commenting asking why he was not mentioned..
I look forward to seeing the analysis on him.
July 17th, 2007 at 4:50 pm
Hi,
Any chance you’re going to do the same thing for the Democratic candidates? I’d be really interested in how Barack, Richardson, and Clinton stack up in particular.
July 17th, 2007 at 9:01 pm
Thank you! very interesting! I can’t wait to see how Ron Paul fares though :) Very awesome of you to add him in at the last minute.
July 17th, 2007 at 9:29 pm
100% inaccurate until it includes Ron Paul. Very disappointing, I had thought Compete would be more accurate.
July 17th, 2007 at 9:30 pm
Sorry, not 100% inaccurate, just 100% disappointing.
July 17th, 2007 at 11:29 pm
Where’s Ron Paul?
July 18th, 2007 at 12:39 am
Why didn’t you include Ron Paul to begin with? You’re not scoring points with “the community” here, and you won’t be scoring any points until you give your excuse.
Note that I’m no Paulite — in fact I think Ron Paul doesn’t understand economics. But I agree with him on downsizing the government (to a degree), the War in Iraq, and to some degree the War on Drugs (although his solution is stupid in that it lets states make the decision).
You better cover Mike Gravel when you cover the Democrats. I mean it.
By the way, I just uninstalled the Compete toolbar because it messed up my Firefox — I sent an email to your corp. about offering a simple plugin rather than a toolbar.
Trust me, you’ll never compete in the toolbar arena. SiteAdvisor does the Trust thing better, and Google does the search better.
People would install the plug-in because they want to help you generate better results! The toolbar is too bulky!
July 18th, 2007 at 12:56 am
As I stated earlier, the analysis for this post began quite some time ago. The Ron Paul and Mike Gravel sites hadn’t been live long enough when we narrowed down the candidates a few weeks back. Since then they’ve gained some traction. So we plan to give each of them coverage in their own right.
In the meantime…
PLEASE STOP SENDING US MESSAGES ABOUT RON PAUL. WE GET IT!
July 18th, 2007 at 7:33 am
1st comment: Ron Paul?
2nd comment: This is an interesting concept but I’m not sure what it’s telling us. Pretty much every candidate’s map looks like every other one’s where the dots are located at population centers. The only difference I see is that Romney has more hits from Utah and Mass.(no surprise there), and Thompson has more hits from Ten. (also no surprise).
July 18th, 2007 at 8:50 am
No candidate comes even close to matching Ron Paul’s online activity, so why on earth haven’t you included him here?! The Ron Paul site “hadn’t been live love enough when [you] narrowed the candidates a few weeks back”?! You’re kidding, right? The Ron Paul site has been up and running for quite some time, and his campaign’s Internet dynamism has been putting all other candidates to shame for months now. You’ll need a better excuse!
July 18th, 2007 at 10:37 am
To my fellow Ron Paul supporters,
Please read what the administrator said (”As I stated earlier, the analysis for this post began quite some time ago. The Ron Paul and Mike Gravel sites hadn’t been live long enough when we narrowed down the candidates a few weeks back. Since then they’ve gained some traction. So we plan to give each of them coverage in their own right.”) before you ask him about Ron Paul again. LOL.
July 18th, 2007 at 11:02 am
RuPaul?
July 18th, 2007 at 11:07 am
Andrew Meagher said:
“PLEASE STOP SENDING US MESSAGES ABOUT RON PAUL. WE GET IT!”
Probably not, or you would have done your work to include him. If you do the Dems, do them all.
July 18th, 2007 at 1:12 pm
Your own example for not including Ron Paul, that “RonPaul2008.com started ramping up later than the other 4″ doesn’t quite work when you compare his numbers with Fred Thompson’s: http://siteanalytics.compete.com/fred08.com+ronpaul2008.com?metric=uv
Note that I am not a Ron Paul supporter. I don’t care so much that he was excluded but that your agruement for doing so was weak.
That said, great job. Very interesting and unique. I can’t wait to see more.
July 18th, 2007 at 1:38 pm
In a long term analysis, RonPaulExplore.com should be used as the earlier version of the Ron Paul site. It can be seen that traffic switched from that to RonPaul2008.com when the new site was set up. The RonPaulExplore.com traffic before the switch was much like the RonPaul2008.com traffic after the switch.
July 18th, 2007 at 1:52 pm
fred thompson is not a 2008 presidential candidate!!
July 18th, 2007 at 4:32 pm
Fred’s numbers should also include the thousands who have visited http://www.DraftFredThompson.com. This site’s been up most of the year, and has over 7000 who have taken the time to sign up as members.
July 19th, 2007 at 10:08 am
Andrew CAN’T include Ron Paul in the same post as these other guys because were he to do so, his readers would know INSTANTLY who wins “if clicks were votes,” and Andrew’s goal is to snooker his readers rather than enlighten them.
Why on earth would anyone be a regular reader of blatherings coming from an individual whose goal is to keep you in the dark like a mushroom?
July 19th, 2007 at 1:36 pm
Fred Thompson takes Texas? Is this a mistake?
It sure looks like from the maps that Romney is
far and away leading in traffic from Texas.
Better re-tally the electoral vote totals!
July 19th, 2007 at 10:44 pm
MsDooDahs: Glad to see that you read through everything before you comment… The next post on the blog was about Ron Paul and said that he won exactly ZERO states in the Republican “fi clicks were votes” battle. This is not exactly What I would call “keeping people in the dark.”
July 19th, 2007 at 10:46 pm
Remember folks, the “dots” are based on the number of CLICKS from each state, which gives us an indication of the level of interest and the intensity of that interest.
The Delegate and Electoral maps are based on the number of UNIQUE VISITS, so whether a user visits a site one time or one hundred times during the time frame, they’re only counted once. That explains why a candidate may “win” a state even though another candidate appears to have more traffic from that state.
Again, for MsDooDahs and any other conspiracy theorists: please read our follow-up post on Ron Paul here:
http://blog.compete.com/2007/07/18/ron-paul-visits-by-state/
July 22nd, 2007 at 3:55 am
Stop censoring Ron Paul, you scum!
August 15th, 2007 at 11:23 am
Well not sure if this is correct or not. First they do not tell how they came to their conclusions or more correctly how their software does it. For example, I find it seriously hard to believe that Fred Thompson only had 500 people hit his site out of Chicago. Or Rudy actually had that many hits out of Iowa - funny. How many votes did he get in Iowa straw poll- 200?
In addition, it would be better if they show visits by month - some candidates like Ron Paul did not start in January - more like March for him. I would say the last three months he has been building momentum while some of the others have lost momentum.
August 15th, 2007 at 3:29 pm
Not for nothing, but having estimates of electoral votes based on this analysis is completely misleading and totally inconclusive, to say the least. How about just presenting the facts without adding anything irrelevant to them? I know your site is “If clicks were votes”, but come on. Do we really need more meaningless conclusions to taint people’s ability to make informed decisions. The national media polls do enough of that without your efforts.
I’m a Ron Paul supporter, and while I’m glad you’re planning to include him next time, what about Huckabee, Brownback, Tancredo, you know, those other guys who are also running? Why does everyone give only Romney, Giuliani, McCain and Thompson (not even a candidate) all the attention? It’s stuff like this that you expect from the mainstream media, but not from independent sites like this. You do more harm than good by publishing inconclusive “electoral votes won” information as if it has some meaning.
How about you be fair to all candidates and just represent the data you can actually track without offering the conclusions. I’ve checked out all of the 4 candidate’s sites you listed above simply because I was doing my research. I certainly don’t support them as not 1 of them has offered any real proposals to change anything in this country, although they certainly use the word “change” enough in their speeches.
August 15th, 2007 at 3:32 pm
You know what… On second thought, I don’t’ even know why I bothered with that last post. Anyone who would draw the conclusion that visits to a website automatically means that the person who visited the site supports that candidate is stupid. I’ve visited them all and only support 1 candidate. But by the logic here I support them all. Pointless.
August 22nd, 2007 at 11:01 pm
Ron Paul?
September 18th, 2007 at 4:47 pm
You won’t convince me that there is any honest reporting going on here, not as long as you are making up excuses for not including Ron Paul.
September 26th, 2007 at 10:35 am
where is RON PAUL? What are you affraid of? your site stinks and so do you!!!
RON PAUL FOR PRESIDENT 2008!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
October 2nd, 2007 at 2:51 pm
I’m really interested in an update for the third quarter. Ron Paul traffic now competes with the front running democrats, where all other Republican websites have pretty much gone down or stayed even, excepting Fred Thompson
October 7th, 2007 at 7:18 pm
Ron Paul does not compete with these candidates now!!! He dwarfs them! The number of clicks he gets on youtube alone is frickin retarded! The guy has 40,000 volunteers yep thats 40,000 flesh and blood humans that are not getting paid but, are out there night and day slapping signs on buildings and power poles and overpasses! I have personally counted over 125 signs in my little 12 mile radius of the city and las vegas is covered in RON PAUL signs! Lets look at the money he has raised that money has come from average everyday people that cant afford to give millions of dollars instead they give $10 or $20 given that we know ROMNEY has been his own biggest contributor and Giulianni is already a frickin millionaire with lots of money from companies he owns portions of giving him millions we can say that Ron Paul has more people giving him small amounts and that means more votes in more states! Ron Paul is the man and its time to wake up and smell the Reality! RON PAUL FOR PRES!!!
October 21st, 2007 at 5:56 am
I’m just curious when you will be adding Ron Paul to the maps? I read all of the previous posts and it just says “later”.
October 25th, 2007 at 8:40 pm
Where’s Dr. Paul!? He would probably get every state. haha.
October 30th, 2007 at 5:22 pm
Ron Paul for President 2008!!
November 7th, 2007 at 9:10 pm
Ron Paul is going to be the next president…whether he is included on this stupid little survey or not. He is so much better than all this…So! If you ask me…this map thing you have going is pretty much a huge waste of your time without including Ron Paul.
November 17th, 2007 at 4:43 am
dartrocchi
November 18th, 2007 at 11:25 pm
Something fishy here. It’s been months since the first apology and still no chart etc. on Ron Paul.
Reminds me of Bueler…………………Bueler………………………Bueler?
November 21st, 2007 at 3:27 pm
America, America, do you dishonor your stars and strips still the more?
There is no question America is in dangerous times with her vulnerabilities, too numerous to mention. Her democracy is in trouble; her internal moral corruption has no bounds. Her freedoms, liberties and resources are being squandered to the highest bidder. Her politician’s construct laws for control and personal gain. More money they scream, but where are the benefits of soaring taxes? America is becoming a socialistic society and few see it, as her destiny is one of giving way to collapsing. Her floodgates have swung wide open with unbridled privileges; while her own goes without a secure future. What will become of America in her wickedness? Will she reinstate morality and righteousness; will she reinstate the Lord, as once was; will she take heed in time for what awaits her?
There is no substitute for godly leadership, carefully praying and seeking godly wisdom in humility, for the affairs of his country. The choice is obviously simple; “Mike Huckabee” is such a man and one that is not afraid to lead America in a world of uncertainty!
When the [uncompromisingly] righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; but when the wicked man rules, the people groan and sigh. Proverbs 29:2
December 11th, 2007 at 10:06 pm
So! If you ask me…this map thing you have going is pretty much a huge waste of your time without including Ron Paul.
December 16th, 2007 at 1:14 pm
are you all retarded. At the bottom of the post it says
“ATTENTION RON PAUL SUPPORTERS:
Ron Paul will be covered in a follow-up post in the near future. Please check back in to see how he fares. ”
They did not forget about him, they just need more data. If everyone would learn to read, we could have prevented 40 posts from asking why Ron paul is not listed. Have faith that he will be added, and be patient
December 19th, 2007 at 12:07 pm
Vote Ron Paul (Kucinich predicted VP)! Save our nation! No more CFR globalists for president (all the other candidates)!!!
December 19th, 2007 at 2:26 pm
Attention Ron Paul supporters (and others with an interest in politics):
Since posting this article, Compete has done much more analysis on the presidential election. To see our latest Election 2008 coverage (including coverage of Ron Paul) I invite you to visit our Political Data Hub here:
http://blog.compete.com/election2008
Matt
December 30th, 2007 at 9:21 pm
Where’s Ron Paul
January 5th, 2008 at 2:36 am
fresh news fetal development
January 8th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
So this was written on July 17 and its January 8. Where it the updated version including Ron Paul???
January 15th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
Where is the man whos going to take it all? Mike Huckabee?
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:10 pm
You excluded #1 Ron Paul.
January 30th, 2008 at 12:38 am
Seeing as how pretty much all of the posts on this site are people asking were Ron Paul is, I think its safe to say hes the most popular candidate on the internet. And anyone who doesnt support him is misinformed. Ron Paul is the savior of America and our Constitution!
February 3rd, 2008 at 5:28 pm
I HAVE BEEN A STAUNCH REPUBLICAN SINCE DWIGHT EISENHOWER AND WILL NOT VOTE IF JOHN MCCAIN IS NOMINATED…. HE IS NOTHING LESS THAN A WHIMPERING LIBERAL DEMOCRAT DRESSED IN REPUBLICAN CLOTHES !!
February 9th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
where the heck is ron paul?