Xbox 360 Wins the Holiday Battle, But Nintendo’s Wii Positioned to Win the War
Written by Matt Pace (contact - e-mail) -- January 29th, 2007 | Recommend This
For many people this past holiday season, a next-generation video game console was the must have gift. Microsoft’s Xbox 360 enjoyed a breakout sophomore year, outselling both the Wii and the PS3 combined during the holidays. The latter, of course, faced major supply shortages leaving one to only wonder how many additional units Nintendo and Sony might have sold if sufficient quantities were available to meet demand.
The following chart presents Compete’s estimate of weekly in-market video console demand based on the number of U.S. consumers observed shopping online for each console.
Key findings from our analysis of video game console shoppers in December:
- The Wii, the clear underdog with its relatively modest specs, surprised many skeptics by sustaining its post-launch interest and outselling the PS3. This won’t come as a surprise to anyone who tried in vain to find a Wii at anywhere close to its suggested retail price.
- The PS3 was a quick flash in the pan that fizzled on the backs of negative publicity, its lofty price and supply shortages. After only a few weeks on the market, the PS3 was attracting barely as many shoppers as the year-old Xbox 360.
- Xbox 360 demand spiked at the start of the holiday shopping season thanks in part to a highly publicized sale on Amazon, spill-over interest in the Wii and PS3, and the introduction of the smash hit Gears of War.
- With Xbox 360 and PS3 demand now running in lock-step, it will be difficult for Sony to gain ground on Microsoft due to a perceived price disparity between the two consoles and Microsoft’s broader game catalog.
Compete also analyzed the degree to which each console’s shoppers considered the rival systems in November and December.
Of particular note:
- There was a clear shift away from the PS3 in December as Wii and Xbox 360 shoppers considered it less and PS3 shoppers considered rivals more.
- Wii shoppers are less likely than Xbox 360 and PS3 shoppers to consider the rival systems. This can be attributed to the Wii’s lower price and broader target market. Regardless of the reason, this loyalty is great news for Nintendo.
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January 29th, 2007 at 5:58 pm
How about some sort of realistic summary of these figures? How can people make such observations without taking into things like:
- cost (PS3 is almost twice the cost, so you would expect half the sames for the same group of buyers?)
- release (PS3 still hasn’t launched in Europe yet, unlike X360 and Wii. And Europe is Sonys strongest selling market for PS2 and PSP?)
This is a bit more classic Sony bashing without any serious consideration for the actual information. Quite typical for news sites these days, anything to get another digg.
January 29th, 2007 at 8:47 pm
Trying to to offend anyone, BUT using your logic, news sites should just stop reporting anything. You are correct, PS3 is not in Europe yet, but this report was was about the US, and the people questioned are in the US.
Also, the fact is, both the 360 and the Wii are in europe, PS3 is not. Does this mean that all statistics should cease because sony was not able to make the production count? how would that be fair? Could you go to your boss and say “No, we can’t make a decision because ‘X’ isin’t ready?” No, what counts is who can get the product out to the customer. So, I feel bad for sony, and I have always been a sony fan, but business is business.
When you make mistakes, all you can do is go with it and hope people don’t move on. BUT especially in the gaming market, if a system is not availible (availibility and cost) we move on the the next best choice. It just happens that this race is not about power but about personal prefrence.
BTW: Sony bashing is not the case here, the data above is a simple case study evaluating all three systems. There may be a bit of distrust and dissapointment with sony, but hey, thats to be expected. Sony let down millions of loyal fans, and because they did not plan well enough for failure, they could not find any way to rectify the issue.
Sometimes NOT communicating can be worst then the negitive truth.
January 30th, 2007 at 12:23 am
What is the source of these numbers? They seem to disagree with some of the NPD numbers I have seen (which do not include all online components)
January 30th, 2007 at 6:22 am
Good question Geoff-
The demand chart is based on the observed behavior of our 2 Million member consumer panel, which is representative of the entire US online population. Consumers who visited the product landing pages for a console at any of the top 20 online retailers (Best Buy, Amazon, etc.) were deemed to be “in-market” for that console during the period.
I see our gaming data and metrics as complimenting NPD’s sales data rather than conflicting with it. Think of ours a “pre-purchuse interest”, whereas NPD reports estimated sales. NPD’s sales data was the source used for the initial statement that the 360 nearly outsold both of the other consoles combined during December. http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=12375
Thanks for reading.
Matt
January 30th, 2007 at 8:18 pm
ps3 just came out;when people sees what it can do;that chart will change.
playstation is the future.
January 31st, 2007 at 9:45 am
Re: VATO_LOCO
If Playstation is the future of video gaming, I think I might take up table top gaming or chess. Not saying they havent made great systems but their recent blunders have completely turned me off of their new systems.
January 31st, 2007 at 11:20 am
anyone remember the sega saturn? Hi-tech at the time, high price - big flop. It nearly killed sega and it never recovered properly from that. Looks like sony is repeating history…
February 1st, 2007 at 3:03 pm
@Eric What killed Sega Saturn was they focused on 2D gaming and Playstation went for 3D Gaming. Sega had some tricks that got it working but the system wasn’t designed for it and the games never really played that well.
- I have a Wii and a PS3. The Wii and PS3 are both great systems and offer different experiences. You will never see games like Gran Turismo, Resistance, or Virtual Fighter on Wii it’s not technically capable. On the other hand games like Wii Sports and Warioware wouldn’t be as fun without the Wii remote.
-I find myself playing Wii when I have friends over. When I’m playing solo I usually prefer PS3. Wii sounds fun but after awhile you don’t feel like standing up or waving your arms around. There are a lot of games a standard controller is a better choice.
February 1st, 2007 at 7:44 pm
As you mentioned, the year-old 360 outsold both of them, since it had the supply to do so. But anyway, anyone who thinks Nintendo will win the war hasn’t been paying attention the past decade.
February 2nd, 2007 at 1:18 pm
I wanted a wii for Zelda and found one through itrakr. (I bought a gamecube for only a couple titles) I was surprised at how much fun the system actually is. I really want a PS3 but figured I would wait for at least one price drop. Judging by the response, i figure that is the case with most of America.
I think the PS3 is worth the price, but like the PS2 it is going to take a while to see titles to justify the investment. If I wait, i will get a better price and a library of games.
February 2nd, 2007 at 1:19 pm
Gambler’s fallacy. Not saying you’re wrong, but it’s kind of daft to assume that Nintendo couldn’t win the current generation simply because they didn’t win the last two.
February 3rd, 2007 at 12:23 am
So im just gonna say it, the ps3 will spike and beat the wii in weakly sales for about 10 weaks , the wii will get 3 new colours and a nintendogs game , take a weakly lead of 5:1 sometimes even 20:1 over christmas and never look back, any skeptics can follow that exact trend with the ds, sony is the new nintendo , using expensive media and pushing away 3rd parties, the era of sony is over, ds is the fastest selling machine (9 per min) and wii will beat it.. goodbye sony goodbye rachet welcome back nintendo welcome back mario.
February 17th, 2007 at 1:22 pm
This article is amazingly ignoring a ton of factors that direct how the gaming market reacts to stimuli as well as being flat out baseless in the data it presents.
“The following chart presents Compete’s estimate of weekly in-market video console demand based on the number of U.S. consumers observed shopping online for each console. ” -article
Are you guys joking?! You have the actual NPD data you can look at to see what the ACTUAL sales estiamtes are for these console and instead of looking at what the real data says, you decide to gage sales demand on your particular blend of online retailers which you don’t bother citing. Why would you guys ignore the actual sales data where 360 had by FAR the highest holiday sales and the PS3 by FAR the lowest and somehow arrive at the notion that PS3 was in higher demand? The thing failed to sell out its launch allotment for crying out loud! It’s demand for the holiday was capped at less than 700k in NA. Wii sold out so we don’t know the extent of its demand. 360 sold really well too and we know its demand was around the 1.6mil it sold in NA this past holiday.
As for the future of the console wars, here is somehting I put together for the battle between Microsoft and Sony. Maybe you guys will leanr something. :P
* all figures are in terms of worldwide numbers provided by Sony
PS2’s manufactured/shipped as of December 31, 2000: 6.4mil (10 months)
PS2’s manufactured/shipped as of May 5, 2002: 30mil (26 months)
PS2’s manufactured/shipped as of September 19, 2002: 40mil (30.5 months)
PS2’s manufactured/shipped as of January 16, 2003: 50mil (34.5 months)
PS2’s manufactured/shipped as of September 9, 2003: 60mil (42.25 months)
PS2’s manufactured/shipped as of December 31, 2004: 80mil (58 months)
Total manufactured/shipped in 4 years, 10 months: 80mil; 1.38mil/month=66.24mil through 4 years
Projections for PS3 shipments assuming they match PS2’s sales/shipments:
PS3’s manufactured/shipped as of January 16, 2007: 2mil (2 months)
PS3’s manufactured/shipped as of January 16, 2009: 30mil (26 months)
Projections for 360 shipments assuming they don’t change (likely to speed up a bit):
360’s manufactured/shipped as of December 31, 2006: 10.4mil (13.25 months)
360’s manufactured/shipped as of January 16, 2009: 29.7mil (37.75 months)
What does this tell us? This tells us that in order for PS3 to match 360 in shipments by the end of 2008, they would have to ship as many PS3’s as the company did PS2’s in the same timeframe. Even ignoring the fact that they can’t make the consoles as easily as they could with the PS2, if you look at why a company ships a console, it becomes even more unlikely for Sony to hit 30mil through 2008. Sony isn’t going to ship consoles unless retailers call for them. In other words, unless PS3 sells as well to consumers as PS2 did in that timeframe, there is no way Sony will ship that many PS3’s.
If Sony magically was able to sell as many PS3’s as they did PS2 in the same timeframe, then by the end of the generation in 2010, the PS3 will still be at 66.24mil shipped worldwide. A pretty damned good number. However, you have to remember they have no realistic shot at selling as fast as PS2 did and as such will not likely be able to ship that many, let alone sell them.
So after taking that into account a bit, by the end of 2007 there is no way in hell Sony can even hope to be ahead of 360 in worldwide userbase with PS3. By year end 2008, there is likewise no chance in hell it can beat out 360 for LTD shipments and the same most likely can be said of sales since the 2 are so closely related.
Why did I pick 4 years of PS3 sales? Because that is the point when the following generation of consoles will start as Microsoft releases the next iteration of the Xbox brand after the 360’s 5 year lifecycle. It makes no sense to look at PS2 and say how well it did to date. That only shows how well it does over 7+ years. Since PS3 won’t be available for 7+ years by the time the generation ends and a new Xbox comes out, it only makes sense to compare the projections through the end of 2010, which is the expected launch timeframe of the new Xbox console. That is 4 years of PS3 sales compared to 5 for 360.
All market factors point to 360 dominating PS3 on the worldwide front in 2007 (Halo 3, GTA, SC 5, etc + 360 price drop to casual price point) while they are pretty even in 2008 (rumored GOW 2, Halo Wars, RE 5, DR 2, LP 2, Fable 2, Alan Wake and other smaller system sellers). In 2009 I expect Sony to have a great year for PS3 and for it to outsell 360 for the calendar year. Likewise for 2010. But will that be enough? No. Here’s why.
PS2 captured the casual gaming masses with games like GTA, FF, GT and a $199 price tag. The software gave casuals a reason to want the console and the price gave them the means to buy one. The only franchises that have as much selling power relative to pushing hardware are GOW and Halo, the latter of which is at the very least arguably the best seller of hardware of any franchise. In summer 2007 360 will drop to $199, reaching the casual pricepoint.
It will already have a well established system seller in GOW and other smaller titles as well as an open Halo 3 beta and the full game coming in Fall 2007. GTA and Halo 3 will push TONS of 360’s out the door this coming holiday when coupled with the new price tag. Casuals have the big casual franchises they love (GOW, Halo, GTA) all in one place for a good price. THAT is what sells hardware to the masses. This is why I say 360 will take 2007.
The problem Sony has is that even though they will get big system sellers as well over time (most in 2008), they won’t have ANY chance of hitting a reasonable price to allow casuals to buy their machine until at the very earliest late 2009 (assumes they get to $199 via $100/year price drops).
At best their system selling potential of their big guns will be somewhat diminished by the price point. Sony gets to the casual sweetspot with games in late 2009. That is banking on some very unlikely assumptions for Sony’s capacity to drop price. Ignoring that, Sony is still giving 360 a FULL 2 year headstart to crack that casual market. Casuals have never shown any big brand loyalty. They jumped from Atari to Nintendo to Sony. They go where their favorite games are.
Not only does PS3 have to sell as well as PS2 did on a worldwide scale to match 360 by the end of 2008, it has to do that while giving Microsoft 2 years worth of first dibs on the casual market, which also pushes back their time to crack whatever is left of said market to only 1 year before the next generation starts in 2010. By the time Sony gets to chip away at that casual market at full force, will there be enough consumers left over for them to catch whatever lead 360 might have? If so, will they have enough time to get all those potential consumers before the new Xbox launches in 2010? It seems a lot of people aren’t considering these questions seriously. Food for thought.
Sources:
http://www.gaming-age.com/news/2001/1/25-137
http://www.rte.ie/arts/2002/0514/ps2.html
http://news.com.com/2100-1040-958600.html
http://news.com.com/2100-1040-980966.html
http://www.gamespot.com/news/6074796.html?print=1
http://ps2.ign.com/articles/578/578454p1.html
March 9th, 2007 at 12:14 am
I own the wii and 360 and i dont want a ps3. most people call me stupid, but i have a reason:
1.The ps3 is too high priced for it to be almost the same thing as the xbox 360.
2.Blue ray is over rated, i mean you could just buy a dvd unless your stuck up and want only top notch.
3.The Graphics compared to the 360 on the same tv, look identical!
4. The highest rated game for the ps3 is in a lower rank than the 6th place xbox 360 game!
If your going to buy a new gaming console, buy the right one, i understand that most people didnt like the way the original xbox controllers fin in your hands, but the 360 is comfortable and more affordable. The wii is Great, if you want a family system, the wii is your best bet.
Im not saying that ps3s suck, but im saying if thir gonna make it so expensive, they should make it at least 20 - 60 % better than the system before that (PS2).
March 9th, 2007 at 8:18 am
Ok xbox heads listen up.Whoever says xbox is better then ps3 is stupid because all the games are the same and they look the same. So neither are better.But there are accesories that the Ps3 does have that xbox will never see that makes it better. First it has a bigger harddrive, great media center, and free online gameplay RIGHT out the box. Also it has sixaxis which will soon be coming out with a Wii like remote and a rumble feature.Also it has built in bluetooth for head sets keyboards and anybluetooth product, has built in wireless internet for a connection to play online ANYWHERE in your house, has a stronger processor and core and etc. So in the long run when xbox is maxed out and its 10g dvd discs cant compete with Ps3 blueray 20Gb space disc ,Ps3 will rule the industry.Ps3 will also still have games that theyve dominated with since we were kids and are ALL playable on the system all the way back to ps1 .but as of now they produce they same game play . The only thing xbox has is Mass effect and Halo(which gameplay isnt gonna be that much flattering then the first two,waste of money….).ITs not to smart to base the survival of your system on one game. Ps3 is coming with MEtal Gear, Final Fantasy,gran turismo HD ,Killzone 2,Tekken 6 and much more . Besides those games ,everything is going to start to look better because of the more powerful system and i also forgot to mention it has a webbrowser and all the great usb ports to hook anything up you can possibly think of. So xbox is way behind, simply because they wanted to come out quicker. They missed all the new technology. So right now there doing fine, proably selling as much as ps3 because ps3 needs to launch more games and systems. But pretty soon the thrown will come back to the rightful owner. Another thing anyone who purchases an XBOX is a victim of advertisement, simpley because all XBOX’S GOOD GAMES COME OUT ON THE COMPUTER. Why are you gonna watse your money on a system when you have a comp at home and can spend it on nintendo wii or ps3. NO POINT in buying an xbox. SORRY.The people that argue that xbox is better are madd and frustrated that theyve had xbox for so long and have all these games and they dont want to go through the hastle of switching systems and catching up because xbox dominated for a while. Face it ps3 has better hardware and is better. Xbox’s tried competeing HD disc already failed to ps3 built in blu ray system. Everone is sponsoring Blu Ray and all movies are going to be made on Blu Ray.Also im so tired of hearing people say i wont buy Ps3 because of the price, well look at all the hardware comparisons i made up there thats your answer.Lemme show you something. The Xbox premium system is 400 , ok there HD DVD drive is 200(which failed to take over market) , ok and there Wireless online recievers is atleast 60(i heard 100). Now how much does that make 660 without the 10 times bigger hardrive and more powerful processing and FREEE ONLINE GAME PLAY. you xbox players better just drop the argument because this says it all right here. There you have it .I think i prove my point.Anyone that is going to say some stupid comments back to this , im not even going to take the time to come back and look at this blog so your words wont be heard. take car ;{ oh yea and I own all 3 systems…
March 12th, 2007 at 1:17 pm
i play games when im tired…to relax..usually while lying on the bed or while on a comfortable couch or a sofa…WII is definitely not for me..to exercise i workout in a gym..wii is not a total workout…its just a bits and pieces workout..so im not getting a proper workout from the wii…and it does not let me enjoy the games while relaxing…i have to move my arms all the time…definitely a big no no for me!! they said wii has graphics qiality equivalent of xbox..but sorry to say..the wii games uptill no whavnt even matched ps2 or gamecubes graphics…im a gamer who liked cinematic games…too bad the wii cant move towards reality based games…because it does not have the graphics power to do so…
PS3 is expensive…does not have the vibration function..
but i think xbox 360 is in between the 2 systems…it has all the functions…vibration….excellent live support…affordable price…great games,great console shape and interface….and the backing of microsoft and bill gates…so im buying an xbox360 next month.
March 16th, 2007 at 10:58 am
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THIS GUY DIDNT READ WHAT I SAID, X BOX HAS ALL THE FUNCTIONS?? ILL REFRASE…………..Ok xbox heads listen up.Whoever says xbox is better then ps3 is not to smart because all the games are the same and they look the same. So neither are better, right now…….But there are accesories that the Ps3 does have that xbox will never see that makes it better.PlayStation 3 features a PowerPC-base core running at 3.2 GHz, 256MB of XDR RAM at 3.2 GHz, 256MB GDDR3 VRAM at 700 MHz, Bluetooth wireless controllers, built in WiFi (802.11b/g), and RSX, a state-of-the-art next-gen GPU by Nvidia with a clock speed of 550 MHz. First it has a wayyyyy bigger harddrive and can be switched with even a 500Gb hard drive, its also a great media center for videos ,mp3, photos etc, and free online gameplay RIGHT out the box. Also it has sixaxis which will soon be coming out with a Wii like remote and a rumble feature.Also it has built in bluetooth for head sets keyboards and any bluetooth product,also has built in wireless internet for a connection to play online ANYWHERE in your house, has a stronger processor and core and etc. So in some time when xbox is maxed out on its 9Gb out dated dvd discs and cant compete with blueray 20Gb space disc ,Ps3 will rule the industry.Ps3 will also still have games that theyve dominated with since we were kids and are ALL playable on the system all the way back to ps1 .I have atleast over 200 games dating back to when i was a kid and i can play them ALL on ps3, good thing to have. The only thing xbox has is Mass effect and Halo(which gameplay isnt gonna be that much flattering then the first two,and which is also just an average 1st person shooter ,waste of money….).ITs not to smart to base the survival of your system on one game. Ps3 is coming with MEtal Gear, Final Fantasy,Gran Turismo HD ,Killzone 2,Tekken 6 and much more . Besides those games ,graphics are going to start to look better because of the more powerful system and i also forgot to mention PS3 has a webbrowser and all the great usb ports to hook anything up you can possibly think of. So xbox is way behind, simply because they wanted to come out quicker. They missed all the new technology. So right now there doing fine, proably selling as much as ps3 because ps3 needs to launch more games and systems. But pretty soon the thrown will come back to the rightful owner. Another thing anyone who purchases an XBOX is a victim of advertisement, simpley because all XBOX’S GREAT GAMES YOU GUYS ARGUE ABOUT COME OUT ON THE COMPUTER. Why are you gonna watse your money on a system when you have a comp at home and can spend it on nintendo wii or ps3. NO POINT in buying an xbox. SORRY.The people that argue that xbox is better are madd and frustrated that theyve had xbox for so long and have all these games and they dont want to go through the hastle of switching systems and catching up because xbox dominated for a while. Face it ps3 has better hardware and is better. Xbox’s tried competeing HD disc already failed to ps3’s built in blu ray system. Everone is sponsoring Blu Ray and all movies are going to be made on Blu Ray,search google see for yourself.Also im so tired of hearing people say i wont buy Ps3 because of the price, well look at all the hardware comparisons i made up there thats your answer.Lemme show you something. The Xbox premium system is 400 , ok there HD DVD drive is 200(HD DVD failed to take over market) , ok and there Wireless online recievers is atleast 100. Now how much does that make 700 without the 10 times bigger hardrive and more powerful processing and COMPLETELY FREE ONLINE GAME PLAY.And for the people that argue about how much more xbox has sold then ps3, well did you ever happen to think about how many years 360 has been out and ps3 has just dropped in nov,OF COURSE 360 IS GOING TO HAVE SOLD MORE,they’ve been out way longer.And the fact that x box has been out so much longer and there systems are still having major hardware problems shows you something about them, like the disc getting scratched all around and they simply burn up EASILY. You xbox players better just drop the argument because this says it all right here. There you have it .I think i prove my point.Anyone that is going to say some stupid comments back to this , im not even going to take the time to come back and look at this blog so your words wont be heard. I read about this stuff every day and listen to what the big industry heads say, i would give it to xbox if they deserved it but they dont.take car ;{ oh yea and I own all 3 systems…
March 28th, 2007 at 6:09 pm
xbox 360 is crap
March 30th, 2007 at 6:32 pm
I like Xbox, It makes good Firewood
April 3rd, 2007 at 7:41 pm
UMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM The Guy who says the ps3 is better is stupid with a capital S
the 360 is way better in every way the looks the games and graphics The 360 Graphics are wayyyy better then the gaystation 3. Theres only 1 game thats good on ps3 .Resistance fall of Man. 1 Lol
360: Gears of war, Gears Of War 2, Halo 3, Graw, Halo Wars, Lost Planet, and the rest of the games for ps3 are coming on 360 and look better on 360 graphics lol hahahahah.
sure the ps3 are getting games that are not coming on the 360 but the 360 makes up for it
by getting other games that look better…….
ANYWAYS STOP FORCING UR IDEAS ON OTHERES BUY WHATEVER U LIKE THERE BOTH MAD BUT I LIKE THE 360 BETTER ANYWAYS THERE BOTH BETTER IN DIFFERENT WAYS. IVE GOT FACTS FOR THE 360 ITS BETTER ONLINE.
OHH I ALLMOST FORGOT THEY SAY THAT THE PS3 MAKE UP THERE OWN IDEAS Y THEN WOULD THEY MAKE IT VIRTUAL CONTROLLS LIKE THE WIII THE PS3 WHEN U MOVE YOUR HANDS IT CAPTURES UR MOVEMENTS JUST LIKE THE WII PS3 COPY CATS HAHA
BY THE WAY I GOT A WIII HAHAHA
May 20th, 2007 at 10:30 pm
Who ever is “xbox sucks” is, is an idiot! First of all, you compared ps3 to xbox! Not xbox 360! Idiot! Blu ray holds up to 60GB of information, not 20GB, idiot! Ps3 online has to be free cause theres no one online playing, ever! Idiot! Xbox 360 Elite has a 120GB, Hdmi port and cost $479.99 and it includes the $70 hdmi cable in the box! Idiot! HD-DVD holds up to 54GB vs Blu-Ray 60GB. U never goin to use all the GB so its pointless. Most people actually buy a VIDEO game console to play VIDEO GAMES on it! Not to watch movies! Bluetooth technology sux period! Devices never stay connected! I can go on and on! But if you want to keep giving your hard earned $$$ to Japan, so be it! I cant stop you. Just remember they hate us, called us fat and lazy. I guessed you prove them right and paid them for it! IDIOT!
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