Senate Races
Written by Andrew Meagher (contact - e-mail) -- November 6th, 2006 |
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The mid-term elections on November 7th represent the first serious threat to Republican control of Congress since the GOP was swept into power in 1994. Conventional wisdom says that even if the Democrats are able to gain the 15 House seats needed for majority control, picking up the necessary 7 seats in the Senate would be a long shot at best.
We thought it would be fun to take a look at how polling data for the four closest Senate races matches up against an analysis of the traffic on each candidate’s site. Will visitor data prove to be predictive of the electoral outcome? Time will tell…
Missouri
Incumbent Republican Senator Jim Talent is facing a challenge from Missouri State Auditor Claire McCaskill. This has been perhaps the closest race throughout the political season, with both sides exchanging polling leads for weeks now.
Virginia
The Virginia race pits incumbent Republican Senator George Allen against decorated Vietnam Vet Jim Webb. Allen had been doing well, seemingly immune to potentially negative effects of some controversial comments he made several weeks ago. But the huge polling lead he enjoyed over the summer has evaporated lately, with some polls showing Webb taking the lead.
Tennessee
Another race that has been close for weeks — this one features Democratic Representative Harold Ford Jr. taking on Republican Bob Corker, former Mayor of Chattanooga. The winner gets to claim the seat of retiring Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist.
New Jersey
According to the experts, this is the only seat held by Democrats that is in potential jeopardy. Senator Bob Menendez has been fending off charges of corruption from his Republican contender State Senator Tom Kean. The accusations were having an impact a few weeks ago, but lately Menendez has been pulling ahead.
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- If Clicks Were Votes - Democratic Candidates
- If Clicks Equaled Votes in November – Democratic Candidates
- Lipstick Happens: McCain’s VP Pick Shakes up the Race, Online Too
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November 6th, 2006 at 1:35 pm
Interesting. One potential problem with your data in VA is that the Webb blog is run off their main site URL while the Allen blog is run off a separate URL (http://www.allenhq.com). This might mean that the Allen program is being underreported.
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